While the PM’s been having a good week since the Uri surgical strike, his rivals are facing hard times — no wonder he’s smiling these days
PM Narendra Modi gestures during his speech at a conference in New Delhi on Friday. Pic/AP
It’s been a happy week for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and not just because of the short-term glory of the anti-terrorist surgical strike across the Line of Control in Kashmir. Short-term because Pakistan will likely retaliate, though it is doing its best to pooh-pooh the fact of the strike. Recall that there was tremendous pressure on Modi after the Uri attack; not only did the strike give him relief, it gave TV studio analysts optimism about the new long-term direction India would now take, and it gave middle-class supporters reason to visit the local halwai. Pressure is now on Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif. If he retaliates, pressure will again come back on Modi. He will have to do something, even if incrementally more than the first strike. In the medium-term, we are in for a ding-dong period of uncertainty and anxiety. For now, though, Modi is king.
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The other reasons for cheer were Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa. They did not have a good week and this is good news for Modi and his party’s electoral prospects in the 2019 general election, more than any surgical strike. For if there is any obstacle to Modi getting a second term, it will come from a CM; after all, it was CM Modi who in 2013-14 stormed the citadel that is Lutyens Delhi.
Nitish had looked like a candidate around whom the Opposition could coalesce by 2019, till he was re-elected nearly a year back, assuming power with his friend-turned-foe-turned-uneasy-ally Lalu Prasad. His opponents claimed the alliance wouldn’t last, but Lalu is firm on his two sons in Nitish’s ministry getting a proper apprenticeship. His opponents claimed that law and order would take a hit, but that has not happened (though there have been high-profile crimes like the murder in May of journalist Rajdev Ranjan).
Instead, Nitish has tried to consolidate a mass base for himself by promulgating Prohibition, a move popular with Bihar’s long-suffering women. He perhaps calculated it would help electorally in the way that hiring more teachers or giving girls bicycles did. Lalu’s RJD is the largest party in the Assembly, so Nitish’s room for manoeuvre is always going to be limited and he knows that efficiency in governance and development have limited returns in an impoverished and caste-conscious state like Bihar.
Patna High Court struck down Prohibition. Ironically, it was the same day that the HC was taken to task by the Supreme Court for releasing criminal-politician Mohd Shahabuddin on bail. Shahabuddin, about whom Ranjan wrote extensively before he was killed, is being tried in 11 murder cases; the HC granted him bail because one case was slow in coming to trial. The SC sent Shahabuddin back to jail; even Lalu was reportedly unhappy with his release. The Patna HC has an unhappy record of overturned rulings and judgments.
Nitish may not be in the wrong, but this back-and-forth on both issues has only clouded perceptions of him as an administrator (though he is likely still very efficient). Nitish, insecure of whether Lalu is working the wheels within wheels, went and had a photo-op with the PM, just to keep everyone on their toes. Regardless of its impact on Lalu, Nitish’s stock with other regional CMs has dropped, as has his chances of heading a federal front. This will cheer Modi.
As for Amma: the Tamil Nadu police have apparently filed a case against a woman in France for social media rumour-mongering about Amma’s health. She has been at Apollo Hospital — incidentally, where her mentor MG Ramachandran died — since September 22; for fever and dehydration, which is ordinarily treatable in a day or two. No one has stated the cause. A London specialist in multiple organ failure and critical care flew in. Posters have mysteriously appeared around Chennai from supporters threatening suicide if she’s not publicly shown immediately. Residents have stocked up on supplies, remembering that after MGR died, his cadre’s grief led to widespread violence. DMK supremo M Karunanidhi even asked the acting Governor to step in, which he did: according to an official release, he went to her room and looked at her.
Amma is Modi’s friend and pillar, but, in the last elections she showed some Delhi ambition (her state controls 40 MPs). In 2019, she can play a key role in a fractured Parliament. Beyond her, one sees nothing but churn in state politics, as Karunanidhi himself is at least 93. His son Stalin is a 60ish dud. Rajnikanth missed his window of opportunity. In TN, therefore, there isn’t going to be a leader who can pose an obstacle to Modi’s second term. No wonder Modi’s been smiling this past week. Though in politics, as in life, you never know what next week will bring.
Senior journalist Aditya Sinha is a contributor to the recently published anthology House Spirit: Drinking in India. He tweets @autumnshade. Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com
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