It is not members of Parliament from Uttar Pradesh and other key political states that hold the key to the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance government's future but the "undecided" Independents and single member parties from North-East and other periphery areas, would call the shots and decide which way the pendulum swings.

Two parties from North East, having one member each in the Lok Sabha Nagaland Peoples Front and Mizo National Front have not made up their mind to support the UPA or not, when the entire country  was gasping to know, which way the political scenario was headed.

Nagaland Peoples Front (NPF) member W Wangyuh Konyak evaded questions regarding future of the government.

"I have not made up mind. I am just keeping quiet. Please don't ask. Don't ask me if they (the UPA) will get majority. I am a single member party in the House. Ask the big parties," Konyak told MiD DAY on Sunday evening.

The UPA had earlier counted the support of the NPF to bring it to the total of 271 votes. But the numbers kept dwindling.

Mizo National Front's (MNF) Vanlalzawma though felt the nuclear deal was good for the country but had not decided to vote in favour of the UPA. "My personal view is that the nuclear deal is good for the country.                               

But regarding the vote of confidence, we are not yet decided. My party has given the power to the Chief Minister, but a decision is yet to be made. Though I am the only MP from my party, we will decide it later," Vanlalzawma said.

However, independent members from North-East, Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary-the lone Bodo member from Assam's Kokrajhar-kept the UPA in suspense till late night.

When MiD DAY contacted him in the evening, he evaded a direct reply, saying "Right now I cannot say anything. I have not decided." But a news agency said he had said was ready to vote for the UPA.

The BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was brought down by one vote in 1999.

The UPA's call is too close, admitted a source. 

Of the other five independent members, none had made their stand absolutely clear.

Thupstan Chhewang from Ladakh kept the sword hanging over Singh. "I support the N-deal but I have not decided which side I will vote. There are lot of things involved in it.

There are other issues. It depends on how the Congress party has dealt with the people of Ladakh and their  issues. We will decide on Monday when it starts," he said.

Another independent MP, Mani Charenmei from Outer Manipur, was undecided till late on Sunday night. "He has not decided anything," said Charenmei's niece Dinti Leo after the news surfaced that he had decided to support the UPA.

The members who have pledged support to the government, however, denied any horse trading. Bharatiya Navshakti Party (BNP) MP from Dadra and Nagar Haveli Mohanbhai Delkar, said, "I am supporting the government. I don't know the numbers but we have got the figure. Even if given the fact that RJD's Ajit Singh (with three members) is not supporting, we will get the numbers. There is no horse trading. Not at all."

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) member Asaduddin Owaisi was forthright.

"N-deal and Trust vote are two different things. Regarding the nuclear deal, our party has strong reservations. It will impact the independent foreign policy of the country.

Trust vote is another matter. I don't want the BJP to come to power. L K Advani is an accused in the Babri Masjid demolition case. There are allegations of horse trading.

Frankly, who is giving that money? If you get me that amount, I will give you 50 per cent or 70 per cent of that."

Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party's strength had dropped to 35 from 39. But the Congress was unfazed. "The SP has said that the losses would be made good," Prithviraj Chavan, Minister of state in the PMO said. BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh hopped onto the SP bandwagon, courtesy Amar Singh.

The situation was fluid with the numbers falling short of 271, forcing the Congress floor managers to do a rethink on the vote of confidence. According to sources, going in for a vote of confidence did not favour the UPA and the best option available for Manmohan Singh was to dissolve the House and be the caretaker prime minister till the elections, says an intelligence officer.

UPA strength

Cong - 153 with 2 MPs likely to vote against it - 151

Samajwadi Party - (39 but has only 35. One BJP member joined) 36
RJD - 24
DMK - 16
NCP - 11
PMK - 6
JMM - 5
LJSP - 4
National Conference - 2
AIMJ - 1
Navshakhti Party - 1
PDP-1
MLKC-1
NLP-1
RPI-1
SDP-1
Independents - 1 (Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary)

Total - 263

Undecided
MNF
NPF
Five Independents

Comments of Single-member parties supporting UPA

Nakul Das Rai, Sikkim Democratic Party, Sikkim
We are giving unconditional support to the UPA. We are going to support the nuclear deal. UPA has got a majority and we will prove it on the floor of the House. Different parties have different calculations. But as per my calculation, the UPA will get support.

Baleshwar Yadav, National Loktantrik Party(NLP), Padrauna (UP)
I am with the government. I am with the UPA. It will win. You cannot stop tongues wagging on horse trading. It is in the interest of the nation. The Left had its own compulsions of appeasing their home constituency in Bengal where they are opposed to the Congress. The SP is now with the government.

W Wangyuh Konyak, Nagaland Peoples Front (NPF), Nagaland
I don't know. I have not made up mind. I am just keeping quiet. No comments. Please don't ask. Don't ask me if they will get majority. I am a single member party. Ask the big parties.

Vanlalzawma, Mizo National Front (MNF)
My personal view is that the nuclear deal is good for the country. But regarding the vote of confidence, we are not yet decided. My party has given the power to the Chief Minister, but is yet to take a decision.

Mehbooba Mufti, Anantnag (J-K), Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party
The confidence vote is not now about the nuclear issue. It's about if the UPA remains functional. We don't want return of communal forces and anti-national parties like the BJP. It's not about Muslims either and the deal is not against Muslims. If the deal is bad, it is bad for everybody. I cannot say if the government survives or not.

Mohanbhai Delkar, Dadra and Nagar Haveli (ST) Bharatiya Navshakti Party
I am supporting the government. I don't know the numbers but we have got the figure. Even without Ajit Singh's RJD's support, we will get the numbers. There is no horse trading. Not at all.

Mamta Banerjee All India Trinamool Congress(AITC, Calcutta South
Not supporting. Has accused the government of horse trading.

Asaduddin Owaisi - All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen(AIMIM) Hyderabad
N-deal and Trust vote are two different things. Our party has strong reservations on the deal. It will impact the independent foreign policy. Trust vote is another matter. I don't want the BJP to come to power. L K Advani is accused in the Babri Masjid demolition case. There are allegations of horse trading. Frankly who is giving that money? If you get me that amount, I will give you fifty per cent or sevety per cent.

Abdul Rashid Shaheen, Baramullah Jammu and Kashmir National Conference(J&KNC)
We are not opposing the Nuclear deal. However, we have some problems with the Congress party. We have not been able to decide. Our political affairs committee has given the right to the party president to decide. The cat will be out tomorrow. What ever is the party whip, I will go by it.

Independents

Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary, Kokrajhar (ST)(Assam )
Right now I cannot say anything. I have not decided. But by the evening he had said was ready to vote for the UPA.

Mani Charenamei, Outer Manipur  (ST) (Manipur ),
Not decided.

Thupstan Chhewang, Ladakh
I support the N-deal but I have not decided on which side I will vote. There are lot of things involved. There are other issues. It how the Congress party has dealt with the people of Ladakh issues or with us. We will decide on Monday.

Babu Lal Marandi, Kodarma (Jharkhand )
May vote against it…

Harish Nagpal - Amroha (Uttar Pradesh )
Sand contracts have been revived by the BSP regime in UP. I may go with the BSP.

Dr Paul Sebastian Ernakulam (Kerala )
Will vote against the UPA: Son

Those who switched sides

Shiv Sena MP Tukaram Renge Patil remains away from party meeting
BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh will contest the next elections on SP ticket in UP, says Amar Singh JD (U) MPs P Koya, party MP from Lakshadweep, and Ramswaroop Prasad, representing Nalanda Lok Sabha constituency did not turn up at the party's two-day National Executive

Against

Two Congress MPs Kuldeep Bishnoi and Arvind Sharma have turned against the party.
Five SP members Munawar Hasan, Raj Narayan Budholiya, Jai Prakash, Shahid Siddiqui (Rajya Sabha), S P Singh Baghel No certainty about jail birds Atiq Ahmed and Afzal Ansari Rashtriya Lok Dal 3 and Deve Gowda JD (S)

Where is the confidence?

The key players

We are giving unconditional support to the UPA. We are going to support the N-deal. UPA has got a majority and we will prove it on the floor of the House.  But as per my calculation, the UPA will get support.
- Nakul Das Rai, Sikkim Democratic Party, Sikkim

I support the N-deal but I have not decided on which side I will vote. There are lot of things involved. It's how the Congress party has dealt with the people of Ladakh issues or with us. We will decide on Monday.
- Thupstan Chhewang, Ladakh

I am supporting the government. I don't know the numbers but we have got the figure. Even without Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal's support, we will get the numbers. There is no horse trading. Not at all.
- Mohanbhai Delkar, Bharatiya Navshakti Party

The key players 

The confidence vote is not now about the nuclear issue. It's about if the UPA remains functional. We don't want return of communal forces like the BJP. It's not about Muslims either and the deal is not against Muslims.
- Mehbooba Mufti, Anantnag (J-K), J&K Peoples Democratic Party

We are not opposing the N-deal. However, we have some issues with the Congress. We have not been able to decide. Our committee has given the right to the party president to decide.
- Abdul Rashid Shaheen, National Conference (J&KNC)

I may go with the Bahujan Samaj Party. Let's see Congress-led UPA government  survives the floor or not.
- Harish Nagpal - Amroha (Uttar Pradesh)

Our party has reservations on the deal. I don't want the BJP to come to power.  There are allegations of horse trading. Frankly who is giving that money? If you get me that amount, I will give you 50 percent or 70 percent. 
-  Asaduddin Owaisi, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen

Those who switched sides

* Shiv Sena MP Tukaram Renge Patil remains away from party meeting
* BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh will contest the next elections on SP ticket in UP, says Amar Singh
* JD (U) MPs P Koya, party MP from Lakshadweep, and Ramswaroop Prasad, representing Nalanda Lok Sabha constituency did not turn up at the party's two-day National Executive

Against

* Two Congress MPs Kuldeep Bishnoi and Arvind Sharma have turned against the party.
* Five SP members Munawar Hasan, Raj Narayan Budholiya, Jai Prakash, Shahid Siddiqui (Rajya Sabha), S P Singh Baghel 
* No certainty about jail birds Atiq Ahmed and Afzal Ansari
* Rashtriya Lok Dal - 3 and Deve Gowda 3 JD (S)

Fencesitters hold the key

However, independent member from North-East, Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary-the lone Bodo member from Assam's Kokrajhar-kept the UPA in suspense till late night.

When MiD DAY contacted him in the evening, he evaded a direct reply, saying, "Right now I cannot say anything. I have not decided." But a news agency said he was ready to vote for the UPA.

The BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was brought down by one vote in 1999. The UPA's call is too close, said a source. 

Of the other five independent members, none had made their stand absolutely clear. Thupstan Chhewang from Ladakh kept the sword hanging over Singh. "I support the N-deal but I have not decided which side I will vote.

There are lot of things involved in it. It depends on how the Congress has dealt with the people of Ladakh and their  issues. We will decide on Monday when it starts," he said.

Another independent MP, Mani Charenmei from Outer Manipur, was undecided till late on Sunday night. "He has not decided anything," said Charenmei's niece Dinti Leo after the news surfaced that he had decided to support the UPA.

The members who have pledged support to the government, however, denied any horse trading. BNP MP from Dadra and Nagar Haveli Mohanbhai Delkar, said, "I am supporting the government.

I don't know the numbers but we have got the figure. Even if given the fact that RJD's Ajit Singh (with three members) is not supporting, we will get the numbers. There is no horse trading. Not at all."

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) member Asaduddin Owaisi was forthright.
 
"N-deal and Trust vote are two different things. Regarding the nuclear deal, our party has strong reservations. It will impact the independent foreign policy of the country.
 
Trust vote is another matter. I don't want the BJP to come to power. L K Advani is an accused in the Babri Masjid demolition case. There are allegations of horse trading.
 
Frankly, who is giving that money? If you get me that amount, I will give you 50 percent or 70 percent of that."  Meanwhile, the SP's strength had dropped to 36 from 39. But the Congress was unfazed. "The SP has said that the losses would be made good," Prithviraj Chavan, Minister of state in the PMO said. BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh hopped onto the SP bandwagon, courtesy Amar Singh. 


Big role

The independents have come to play a big role in deciding the future course for the country. Both the UPA and the NDA are wooing them with their full might