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The party is at an advantage because of the demographic nature of the constituency

The Congress, in all likelihood, seems to be the favourite to win the Pune Lok Sabha constituency in the forthcoming elections.

Though none of the political parties have officially announced their candidates, Pune-based political consultant Dr Dilip Sarwate feels that there is good chance that the Congress will emerge victorious.



He asserts this on the basis of a non-probability stratified area sample survey of 1,000 voters of Pune covering 140 wards. He says, the BJP will emerge second.

 Sarwate told MiD DAY, "The Pune Lok Sabha seat is traditionally a Congress seat. The party is at an advantage because of the demographic nature of the constituency.

Their vote bank lies with the BC/OBC, minority and low income group voters that are present in large numbers." 

He added the Congress is likely to contest the seat with sitting MP Suresh Kalmadi. If five parties contest, Kalmadi will sweep the polls, as he is a known face among voters.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has declared D S Kulkarni, a builder, as their candidate. But the BSP does not have too much hold in Pune.

According to Sarwate, the BJP is likely to field lightweights Vikas Mathkari or Anil Shirole. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is yet to get a foothold in this city.

The party will field Anil Shidore who will be no match for Kalmadi. About independent candidate and social crusader Arun Bhatia, Sarwate said, "He is popular among the youth, educated and high income persons.
 
However, the voting percentage of this class is always low."  He feels the BSP, MNS and Arun Bhatia can eat into the Congress vote bank.