All eyes on Delhi poll results

Feb 09, 2015, 08:52 IST | Arun Kejriwal

The BJP’s performance in the assembly polls in the capital will dictate the happenings in the economy, as well as the turn the budget will take

The last week saw the markets lose on every single trading day. Friday was the sixth consecutive day of loss. Sensex lost 465.04 points or 1.59 per cent to close at 28,717.91 points while Nifty lost 147.85 points or 1.68 per cent to close at 8,661.05 points.

Exit polls show a win for Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP in Delhi which may affect the Nifty and Sensex. Pic/PTI
Exit polls show a win for Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP in Delhi which may affect the Nifty and Sensex. Pic/PTI

The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.82 per cent, 1.92 per cent and 1.92 per cent. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.31 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 2.72 per cent.

The top gainer was BSEIT at 3.98 per cent followed by BSETECK at 2.72 per cent and BSEFMCG at 0.18 per cent. The top loser was BSEPOWER down 5.40 per cent followed by BSEBANKEX 5.20 per cent and BSEAUTO 4.67 per cent.

Stock performance
In individual stocks, the top gainer was HCL Tech up 8.97 per cent, followed by Cairn India 8.55 per cent and Infosys 4.01 per cent. The losers were led by Hind Petro down 11.08 per cent and then the bank stocks with PNB at 10.22 per cent and ICICI Bank 8.64 per cent. BHEL was down 9.46 per cent.

Dow Jones recovered substantial lost ground gaining 659 points or 3.84 per cent to close at 17,824 points. FII’s were marginal sellers of R 719.75 crores. Domestic institutions were buyers of R 662 crores. The Indian rupee gained Rs 0.17 or 0.27 per cent to close at R 61.69.

RBI in its bi-monthly review kept interest rates unchanged on expected lines. It infused liquidity by reducing SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) by 50 basis points to 21.5 per cent with effect from February 7. HDFC bank rose close to Rs 9,800 crores. Shares of HDFC closed at Rs 1,057 down 1.77 per cent.

Coal India share prices held ground after the mammoth OFS which the government did last week. Share prices closed at Rs 364.15, a gain of 0.91 per cent. The issue was priced at the floor price of R 356.

Election expectations
Exit poll post the Delhi election predicts a sweeping victory for AAP and a poor second for BJP. This could bring about a correction today when markets open and some sort of a mini sell-off when the results are actually out tomorrow. This could be a buying opportunity on two counts. First, it would be the eight straight day of losses.

Secondly, having failed at the elections, BJP would have to ensure that the budget they deliver in a fortnight’s time is something which is talked about and is on the path of reforms and progress. This would ensure the sore wounds of the election drubbing are soon forgotten.

For time immemorial, we have read that the stock market is the barometer of the economy and people look to it to gauge the mood and the state. The budget has been an important event for the markets and special sessions were held on the day when the budget is declared.

In the good old days, the budget used to be presented in the evening to coincide with noon time in the United Kingdom (UK) so the UK parliament could hear the budget. Stock markets would have a special session to match the budget presentation and that would present an opportunity to investors to take a view on the same.

Budget predictions
This time it appears that the regulator feels that there is no need to have such a session and it is almost certain that we may not have trading when the budget is presented. There will be a fall out of the same in two diverse manners.

The first is that the market would open with a gap upwards if the budget is liked market participants and conversely open gap downwards if disliked.

The second and greater concern would be that market participants would roll over their position on expiry of February series on Thursday, February 26, if there is no budget trading. The risk in such an eventuality would be that huge positions would be squared off or simply not rolled over on expiry day causing a massive sell-off.

The week ahead would be choppy but it appears the six-day-old correction would end sometime in the week. There are expectations that this may happen tomorrow. We could see the recovery moving into the pre-budget rally. Trade cautiously and use dips today and tomorrow to enter the market.

Arun Kejriwal is founder of the Mumbai-based advisory firm Kejriwal Research & Investment Services Pvt Ltd. Readers are invited to read more about these and other issues on his website

Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published anywhere in this newspaper should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading or making investment decisions.

Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions, based on information published here. Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at his or her risk.

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