While BJP and Congress are expected to go to polls with former bed fellows Sena and NCP, the emergence of a third front will make the race interesting in Maharashtra
Closing ranks is unusual to the Congress that has been trying to consolidate itself in the run-up to the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in some important states. Historically, factions within the party have dented its prospects more than any other rival political outfit. So, getting together for a cause, say pushing the BJP back at least in their respective state elections, is seen with a perennial doubt if the unity would stand power politics.
Maharashtra is one such state where the Congress has started a process to have 'feudal lords' on the same page. But it took a change at the top – opposition leader in Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge replaced a long-time ineffective general secretary in-charge of Maharashtra Mohan Prakash – to get the party its act together. Kharge was in Mumbai on Sunday to give a patient hearing to the party leaders from Mumbai and rest of Maharashtra who had a complaint or two, and some important issues that they want the high command to decide for once and all. Mumbai unit's leadership is one of the burning topics that Kharge needs to sort out in consultation with president Rahul Gandhi. Reduced to dust in the 2014 elections, the Congress is now gradually assuming a significant role in the opposition camp.
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The unity showed some form when senior leaders waded their way through a political hotbed of Western Maharashtra in 'Sangharsh Yatra', a road travel campaign. Former CMs and ministers shared seats in a bus, rode bikes whenever required and exchanged ideas for throwing the BJP out of power. Leaders who were not on talking terms for many years had to break the ice. The Yatra will travel through other parts of the state in a phased manner. The kick-off in Western Maharashtra seemed a well-thought initiative because it is where the Congress's ally the Nationalist Congress Party has its roots and dominance, the BJP found an upsurge in both Lok Sabha, Assembly and most recently in local self-government elections.
Masala mix
Assuming a larger role that the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress aspires to play at the national level, Maharashtra will have a great contribution to make. The 48 Lok Sabha seats are second after Uttar Pradesh in a state-wide parliamentary strength. That makes Maharashtra important not only for the Congress but also for three other players, the BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena. A four-party politics springs more surprises when the partners fall apart. The four-way fight in Assembly polls made BJP the single largest party with more than 100 seats, a feat unachieved since 1995. Five months before it, the BJP and Sena together had left only six seats to the Congress (2)-NCP(4) combine. The debate is back to pre-poll alliances yet again.
The Congress and NCP are said to have agreed to extend the pre-poll alliance in Lok Sabha, and they say they are ready to forge one for the Assembly elections as well. But a peep into their past confirms that the NCP may not make things easier for the Congress in sharing seats and try to be as dominant as it was in its 15-year deal in Mumbai's Mantralaya and 10-year stint in the UPA. In fact, the disagreement has already started showing up on a prospective deal-breaker between the two.
The BJP and Sena are not yet decided though both foresee a lot of harm coming their way if they fail to unite in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. CM Devendra Fadnavis predicted the loss on Saturday and expected the two parties to come together in all given political circumstances.
Political pundits and party insiders say forging alliances for Lok Sabha shouldn't be a difficult task for both sides. The seat-sharing is already in place, more prominently for the BJP-Sena. The Congress and NCP may like to have some changes to their formula. However, a real politicking will take place in the Assembly where the previous seat-sharing formulae are unacceptable. No party would vacate seats for partner where it has winners.
Muslim-Dalit bhai-bhai
Another factor that will contribute to deciding the electoral fate are the smaller parties that hold sway in specific communities. Two such parties have joined hands, apparently to teach major outfits a lesson for using religious and Dalit minority in elections and then discarding them. Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and Prakash Ambedkar's Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh say they will be together in their fight and not compromise their united strength for the benefit of any third party. The Owaisi-Ambedkar bond is a cause of worry for the parties other than BJP and Sena that may not want any third front to come up. It will be interesting to see how 'a big brother in the making', the Congress deals with it.
Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com
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