This comes a day after private forecaster Skymet had said that monsoon was expected to arrive on June 4 and was likely to be mostly "below normal", with 15 per cent chance of drought
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New Delhi: Monsoon is expected to arrive in India on June 6, a delay of five days, but it is likely to be "near normal", state forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday."
This comes a day after private forecaster Skymet had said that monsoon was expected to arrive on June 4 and was likely to be mostly "below normal", with 15 per cent chance of drought.
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The IMD had last month said that monsoon this year will be "near normal" -- around 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 887 mm. The average or normal rainfall in the country is defined between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season.
The Skymet, on the other hand, had said that monsoon was likely to be "below normal" at 93 per cent of the LPA owing to developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which posed a higher risk of the eastern parts and major portion of Central India being rain deficient.
The IMD has ruled out any adverse impact of El Nino on the monsoon such as erratic rainfall, saying that it will start weakening by June, thus ensuring that the country got normal rainfall.
El Nino is a sea surface temperature situation over the Pacific Ocean that is said to have a strong negative influence on Indian monsoon.
Skymet asserted that developing weather situations and the factors responsible for the south-west monsoon was "not favourable" this time, and it may lead to less rainfall than the average.
It said the monsoon this year was also likely to be "jerky" as its progression across India would not be smooth.
The farm sector could take a hit if monsoon proved to be "below normal" with sluggish progression, as long gaps between rainfall spells can lead to crop loss.
According to the Skymet, West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand in eastern India and Maharashtra's Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, parts of Madhya Pradesh in Central India and parts of Gujarat were at risk of being rain deficient. It may lead to drought.
On the other hand, northwest India and the South Peninsula were expected to do "fairly well" this time with the odds in favour of rainfall being "normal".
Under the rainfall criterion, 60% of 14 identified weather stations in Kerala should report rain of at least 2.5mm for two consecutive days for monsoon’s arrival to be declared. During the progress stage, a line known as the northern limit of monsoon separates the areas that have come under the monsoon system from others that are outside it.
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Edited by mid-day online desk with inputs from Agencies
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