Forecaster says there is 5% chance of excess rainfall, which is over 110% of long-period average
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Monsoon in India is likely to be normal with no chances of drought this year, private forecaster Skymet said on Wednesday, bringing relief to the country.
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The forecaster said there was 5 per cent chance of excess rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of long-period average (LPA). The average, or normal, rainfall in the country is defined between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season. If it is normal, the country will record 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
"The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution," Skymet said in its report.
The official forecaster, IMD, is expected to come up with its monsoon predictions later this month. In its forecast bulletin, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season – ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.
There are 20 per cent chances of above normal, which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA. Chance of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, is 5 per cent. Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, is 20 per cent.
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