Really subdued, dude

Jun 20, 2016, 09:14 IST | Alex K Mathews

Brexit throws its shadow as investors become bundle of nerves

Last week, the market remained subdued with mixed domestic and global cues. Nifty closed at 8170.20 on Friday. S&P 500 VIX and India VIX closed higher at 19.64 and 17.35 respectively, indicating highly volatile days to come because of ‘BREXIT’. Nifty has resistance at 8269 and 8400 and has support at 8070 and 7945. The likelihood of Nifty moving below these levels is very remote. These corrections can be utilised to buy front line stocks for the medium term.

A kiss chain by pro-Europe ‘remain’ campaigners seeking to avoid a ‘Brexit’ in the EU referendum in Parliament Square in front of the Houses of Parliament in central London. Pic/AFP
A kiss chain by pro-Europe ‘remain’ campaigners seeking to avoid a ‘Brexit’ in the EU referendum in Parliament Square in front of the Houses of Parliament in central London. Pic/AFP

Nifty Bank is showing sideways trends. It has support at 17500 and 17323 and faces resistance at 18038 and 18377.

Last week, both the US Federal Reserve and Japanese Central Bank’s unchanged interest rates were a relief for the markets. After the Federal Reserve stand on interest rate, gold made a new high, and tested $1316 per troy ounce. Going forward, the yellow metal is likely to make higher tops and higher bottoms, according to the technical charts. Many international players are of the view that it would test $1400 in the medium term, on the other hand, technical patterns are suggesting a major break out for the metal in the long term. The short term trend is slightly cautious for gold due to the overbought situation and it can get support at $1277 and have resistance at $1305.65 per troy ounce.

On Friday, reality stocks were in good demand on reports that the regulator may bring various proposals to make Real Estate Investment Trusts more attractive to invest a large portion of funds in under-construction assets. The latest proposal would allow REITS under construction projects investments limit up from 10 per cent to 20 per cent. The other notable sector was sugar; the stocks under this sector rallied quite a lot in the past few months due to shortage of global output and higher demand. The domestic sugar prices went up through the roof in fact. Then, on Friday sugar stocks tanked after the government imposed a 20 per cent custom duty on sugar exports to boost domestic demand and curb inflation. The government announced its aviation policy, which is a real booster for private players. On the PSU banking front, merging decisions of SBI with its associate banks helped to gain market interest in this sector. The associate banks of SBI rallied more than 35 to 40 per cent last week.

There were concerns of inclusion of Chinese 'A' class stocks in the MSCI index, but that move did not materialize. It was positive news for emerging markets. The latest declining Industrial Production and rising food inflation are a worry. The Current Account Deficit declined sharply to $0.3 billion or 0.1 per cent of its GDP in the fourth quarter ended March, for the financial year 2015-16. High food inflation drives WPI inflation which rose to 0.8 per cent in May from a year ago.

The week should be eventful due to BREXIT on June 23 and Yellens statements. Investors are cautiously optimistic about the Govt’s move to table the GST bill during the monsoon session of Parliament. Maybe this is the key reason why FIIs are accumulating Indian equities. They are buyers in 60 per cent of times in June in the last 10 years.

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