Yellow fever

Jul 12, 2013, 02:04 IST | A Correspondent

Gold prices are falling - not just in India but all over the world. Given the depths to which the glittering metal has plunged, it is not exactly a propitious time to sell, but investment advisers say that it does not mean you should rush to buy, either

Vijay Kedia, Managing Director of Kedia Securities Pvt Ltd, feels that gold has just ended its bull market, and expects that this bear phase will run at least for the next three years.

Those looking to buy gold should wait, he advises, as the metal should go to at least half of its peak. It could fall 30 per cent from here, and one might have to wait for three to five years to see the next up-trend, he says.

To be safe, he advises that when gold resumes its up-trend, buyers should go for e-gold instead of gold in its physical form. While this may seem anathema to those who love the gleam of jewellery, Kedia says e-gold is more convenient and much safer.

E-gold is an electronic mode of investing in gold, which allows conversion to physical gold at any time. It can be purchased as e-gold units through the National Spot Exchange. Each unit corresponds to one gram.

Asked about a good time for selling gold, Kedia says that in India gold is strong because of the appreciation of the US dollar. “In my view it is an opportunity to sell gold. But if the dollar becomes stronger, it will negate the drop in price of gold internationally,” he says.

Along with gold, property is the big draw for investors who have abandoned equity, says Kedia. However, he adds, the frenzy in gold in the last six months in India and other countries suggests that its bull run of more than 10 years is over. Every real estate broker has become a property investor and every property investor has become a property developer. There is going to be a shake-out in real estate prices in India, and cities which are improving upon their infrastructure should be a good bet for investment, says Kedia.

Arun Kejriwal, founder of Mumbai-based advisory firm Kejriwal Research & Investment Services Pvt Ltd, says, “Gold prices have come off significantly in dollar terms. The rupee has depreciated significantly from Rs 54 to Rs 59-60 and the government hiked duty on gold from 2 per cent to 9 per cent. This price is not representational of the international standard when gold was at 1,900 dollars and Rs 33,000 (approx) in India. Then, internationally, gold went from 1900 dollars to 1270 and in India from Rs 33,000 to Rs 26,000 odd. This current price factors in both aspects: the duty on gold and the depreciation of the rupee,” he says.

Kejriwal adds, “Now is not a good time to do anything with gold -- buy or sell -- that is my advice to investors. The prices, I think, will stabilize once the crazy demand for gold in India comes off and the government eventually reduces the duty.”  

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