A weather system developing in the Arabian Sea is to blame for the delayed monsoon, it is expected to move in the next 4-5 days
Black clouds seen in Mahim, even as the weather continues to get warmer. Pic/Ashish Raje
As the monsoon seems delayed by a few days, the nights in the city and adjoining areas have started to get warmer. Meteorologists have correlated this to the weather system developing in the Arabian Sea. The sweltering and stuffy nights might continue until the monsoon sets in, meteorologists have said.
As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Vagaries of Weather, a popular private weather blog, on the night of June 4, the minimum temperature recorded at the Santacruz observatory was 29.5°c (highest this season). A minimum temperature of 28.8°c was recorded at the Colaba observatory.
As per the data given by Vagaries of Weather, the highest minimum temperature or warmest night in June recorded at Colaba was on June 10, 2016, at 30.2 °C, while the highest minimum temperature recorded at Sanatcruz was 30.3°c on June 10, 2007.
Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of Weather said, “Nights in Mumbai and adjoining areas are warmer and will continue to be so, due to high humidity and temperatures. A developing system in the Arabian Sea has initiated this. The system is expected to strengthen within the next four to five days and move towards the northwest along the coast. It may or may not directly affect Mumbai or the Konkan coast. We can expect premonsoon showers, though no direct effect of the cyclone will be witnessed in and around Mumbai.”
“Nights allow the human body to chill after a heated day. But when it becomes warmer at night, that doesn’t happen. This puts the body under more heat stress. A warm day and a warm night have a negative impact on human health. The situation will ease, only once monsoon sets in,” said an IMD official.
The monsoon in Mumbai and adjoining areas will be delayed say meteorologists. “With the developing system, the cyclone will suck up all the moisture from around the Konkan coast. After the system moves away, the winds will reorganize in a week’s time, making conditions favourable for rain. So according to me the probability of a monsoon now will be around or after June 15,” added Kapadia.
The southwest monsoon normally sets over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. This year in the month of May IMD had said the monsoon might arrive over Kerala by June 4, with a model error of four days. However, the monsoon missed its onset date in Kerala on Sunday with the IMD, anticipating a further delay of 3 to 4 days.
A statement issued by IMD said, “Conditions are becoming favourable with the increase in westerly winds over the South Arabian Sea. Also, the depth of westerly winds is gradually increasing. The cloud mass over the South East Arabian Sea is also increasing. We expect these favourable conditions for monsoon onset to further improve in the next 3 to 4 days.”
As per IMD, the depth of westerlies had reached up to 2.1 km above the mean sea level on Sunday.
The daytime maximum temperature recorded on Monday at Santacruz observatory was 34.7°c, while Colaba observatory recorded 35.2°c.