Gold traded above $5,000 per ounce for the first time in January 2026, capping a 12-month run that added more than 66% to the metal's value. For many investors, the rally came as a surprise. For Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, the warning signs had been visible for years.

A review of Millman's commentary from 2023 through early 2025 shows a consistent throughline: slowing GDP growth, recession fears, persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and central banks diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets. Each of those conditions has now materialized in force.