A toast to Tripura

No this is not a toast to Tripura for the 93 per cent voting recorded in the state assembly elections last week Not that the feat isnrsquot worthy of a toast but Tripura deserves a greater recognition and emulation for something even more significant a successful end to insurgency The roots of insurgency in Tripura lie in the partition of India in 1947 Tripurarsquos tribal majority demography changed as a result of migration from former East Bengal dropping from 5009 per cent in 1941 to 3855 in 1951 By 1971 it had come down to 2895 per cent The tribals were pushed to the hills Insurgency originated as a protest movement against the domination of politics and government by Bengali speakers both locals and migrants It evolved into insurgency with the formation of the Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti TUJS in 1967 followed by the creation of the Tripura National Volunteers TNV In 1979 the antiforeigners agitation started in Assam which found resonance in Tripura Turning Point After Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2008 things changed and an Indiafriendly government in Bangladesh denied the insurgents safe bases there The National Liberation Front of Tripura NLFT was formed in March 1989 and All Tripura Tiger Force ATTF in July 1990 With secure bases in Bangladesh the two outfits came up with a secessionist agenda demanded sovereignty for Tripura deportation of illegal migrants and the restoration of land to the tribals under the Tripura Land Reform Act of 1960 The insurgency simmered between 1990 and 1995 But it assumed dangerous proportions between 1996 and 2004 514 fatalities were recorded in 2000 when insurgency was at its peak in the state By 2011 the fatalities had come down to one How did Tripura achieve this turnaround One an Indiafriendly government in Bangladesh denied the insurgents their safe bases in that country One of the lessons derived from 5000 years of guerrilla warfare by Max Boot in his latest book Invisible Armies is that an insurgency is more likely to succeed if it has outside support The American Revolution proved that as did Vietnam and the Russian failure in Afghanistan Tripura was no different After Khaleda Zia formed the government in Dhaka in 2001 in coalition with the JamaateIslami NLFT and ATTF flourished with safe havens in Chittagong Hill Tracts weapons and training from the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence of Bangladesh and Pakistanrsquos ISI based there and association with other northeastern insurgent groups But this changed under Sheikh Hasina in 2008 In November 2009 her government arrested NLFT chief Biswamohan Debbarma from Dhaka Moreover the fencing of Tripurarsquos border with Bangladesh is almost complete with only 1255 kilometres of 856 kilometres currently unfenced reducing illegal migration and hindering free movement of insurgentsu00a0Two successful counterinsurgency operations were conducted in the state Tripura Police adopted a multipronged strategy taking upon itself the responsibility of being the main strike force against the insurgents The paramilitary forces acted in coordination with the police the army was not taken on board Special Police Officers proved valuable in gathering intelligence and keeping a tab on the activities of the insurgents their collaborators and harbourers Such was the pressure that between 2006 and 2008 as many as 871 insurgents belonging to the ATTF NLFT and BNCT surrendered to the security forces Even today Tripura has 661 policemen per 100000 population and 2313 policemen per 100 square kilometres well above the national averages of 137 and 524 respectively Three emphasis on greater economic opportunities as insurgency tapered down Insurgencies thrive on the narrative of economic grievances With limited opportunity for trade the state took heavily to rubber plantation Selfhelp groups SHG were started in villages to market rubber Today there are more than 35000 SHGs with 10 members each Simultaneously the state government also focused on bringing socioeconomic development particularly to tribal areas Besides the approved railway line with Bangladesh if India can secure an overland transit passage through Bangladesh Tripura would attract more trade and investors Four the reinvigoration of political process in the state As a cadrebased party the CPM was able to bring political process to farflung areas and empowered the tribals in particular Grass root democratic institutions such as autonomous development councils and gram panchayats were strengthened in the process The state then witnessed a 9122 per cent turnout in the 2008 assembly polls The success in Tripura holds important lessons for other states in the country Denial of outside support from neighbouring countries ownership of counterinsurgency operations by the local police simultaneous socioeconomic development and deepening of political process mdash the fourprongs of Tripurarsquos success will help defeat an insurgencyu00a0 Sushant K Singh is Fellow for National Security at the Takshashila Institution and editor of PragatiThe Indian National Interest Review