Aditya Sinha: Bhutan, Bihar & blink-first dilemma

Nitish only returned as CM with Lalus support in 2014 Nitish was also swept away by the Modi wave PicPTIIronically the way that the Peoples Republic of China is aiming to use the current standoff in Doklam to cleave the special relationship between Bhutan and India is similar to the way that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to pry Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar from his senior coalition partner Lalu Prasads Rashtriya Janata Dal over allegations of corruption against Lalus son and Nitishs deputy Tejashwi Yadav It is the tactic of bulliesTo summarise the past month Chinese troops were found building a road near the Doklam plateau 15 kms from Nathu La the pass that connects Sikkim with Tibet Doklam is in Bhutan China has long claimed it even offering to swap two other disputed border areas with Bhutan in exchange for Doklam The plateau on this side of the BhutanIndiaChina border trijunction China claims the opposite Bhutan protested against the Chinese road and asked India to help Indian troops have since June 1618 held Chinese troops at bay Besides the Indian Army chiefs initial brag that we could fight a twofront war the other front against Pakistan we have been quiet preferring lowkey diplomacy National Security Advisor Ajit Doval the special representative on border talks will meet his counterpart on the 2526th The Chinese however seem agitated and upset they have closed Nathu La to Kailash Sarovar pilgrimage they have offered to mediate on the Kashmir dispute and they have been publicising the 1962 war that we lost Our first PM Jawaharlal Nehru died of the heartbreak caused by Chinas perfidy and the defeatAnalysts say Doklams proximity to the chickenneck corridor that links most of India to the Northeast is a major reason to resolutely oppose any Chinese attempt to change the status quo at the border trijunction Incidentally we lost the 1962 war without losing that corridor It is yet again an antediluvian military approach the Chinese have an array of modern options against India including increasingly levels of intensity of warfare at various points of the border On the other hand India is no longer a walkoverAmerican analyses believe the overriding Chinese objective is to weaken the BhutanIndia relationship Presumably Modi and Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar are alive to this Clearly Chinas main aim is to rattle Bhutan enough so that Thimphu makes conciliatory noises Beijings objective would then be served they would lower the temperature New Delhis objective is to ensure Thimphu does not blink firstThe link of a tense border development to a domestic battle in Bihar might seem tenuous but like Xi Jinping Modi hopes that Nitish will blink soon The PM and party chief Amit Shah probably see the mess that Lalu Prasad finds himself in as a winwin situation At the least it will keep Lalu Prasad offbalance which is important since he is the one major politician who has remained resolutely antiHindutva Most others have compromised at some point or other whether it is former Uttar Pradesh CM Mayawati who was twice supported by the BJP in 1997 and in 2002 or West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee against whom the BJP is currently using its preferred tactic of votepolarising riots but who was part of AB Vajpayees NDA government Lalu cannot but be the lynchpin of Opposition unity before the 2019 parliamentary election winning which is Modis and Shahs primary objectiveThe BJP would be best served if Nitish were to dump Lalu and take its support to keep his government going For him it would be political suicide One Nitish only returned as CM with Lalus support in 2014 Nitish was also swept away by the Modi wave Two the charges against Tejashwi convince only upper caste voters Im genetically from that votebank The charges were brought by the CBI which has as much credibility as China even the Supreme Court called it a caged parrot It has also been building cases against Lalus daughter Misa but that is likely only going to energise the RJDNitish must be weighing his options but frankly betraying Lalu at this point serves little other than ensuring his tenure lasts until 2020 He must be aware that the other Modi ndash state BJP veteran Sushil Kumar Modi ndash is looking forward to one day becoming the Bihar CM an aim shared by his PM and party chief And Nitish must know that after he is forced to give up his dream of becoming PM the BJP will never make him President of India His only future is with the Opposition and with LaluThese are likely similar to the calculations being made by the Bhutanese that despite the pressure from a big powerful force to the north blinking first will get them nowhere Let us see how long they are able to hold outAditya Sinhas crime novel The CEO Who Lost His Head is available now He tweets autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom