Aditya Sinha: Modi's achhe din are here

PM Narendra Modi gestures during his speech at a conference in New Delhi on Friday PicAPItrsquos been a happy week for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and not just because of the shortterm glory of the antiterrorist surgical strike across the Line of Control in Kashmir Shortterm because Pakistan will likely retaliate though it is doing its best to poohpooh the fact of the strike Recall that there was tremendous pressure on Modi after the Uri attack not only did the strike give him relief it gave TV studio analysts optimism about the new longterm direction India would now take and it gave middleclass supporters reason to visit the local halwai Pressure is now on Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif If he retaliates pressure will again come back on Modi He will have to do something even if incrementally more than the first strike In the mediumterm we are in for a dingdong period of uncertainty and anxiety For now though Modi is kingThe other reasons for cheer were Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa They did not have a good week and this is good news for Modi and his partyrsquos electoral prospects in the 2019 general election more than any surgical strike For if there is any obstacle to Modi getting a second term it will come from a CM after all it was CM Modi who in 201314 stormed the citadel that is Lutyens DelhiNitish had looked like a candidate around whom the Opposition could coalesce by 2019 till he was reelected nearly a year back assuming power with his friendturnedfoeturneduneasyally Lalu Prasad His opponents claimed the alliance wouldnrsquot last but Lalu is firm on his two sons in Nitishrsquos ministry getting a proper apprenticeship His opponents claimed that law and order would take a hit but that has not happened though there have been highprofile crimes like the murder in May of journalist Rajdev RanjanInstead Nitish has tried to consolidate a mass base for himself by promulgating Prohibition a move popular with Biharrsquos longsuffering women He perhaps calculated it would help electorally in the way that hiring more teachers or giving girls bicycles did Lalursquos RJD is the largest party in the Assembly so Nitishrsquos room for manoeuvre is always going to be limited and he knows that efficiency in governance and development have limited returns in an impoverished and casteconscious state like BiharPatna High Court struck down Prohibition Ironically it was the same day that the HC was taken to task by the Supreme Court for releasing criminalpolitician Mohd Shahabuddin on bail Shahabuddin about whom Ranjan wrote extensively before he was killed is being tried in 11 murder cases the HC granted him bail because one case was slow in coming to trial The SC sent Shahabuddin back to jail even Lalu was reportedly unhappy with his release The Patna HC has an unhappy record of overturned rulings and judgmentsNitish may not be in the wrong but this backandforth on both issues has only clouded perceptions of him as an administrator though he is likely still very efficient Nitish insecure of whether Lalu is working the wheels within wheels went and had a photoop with the PM just to keep everyone on their toes Regardless of its impact on Lalu Nitishrsquos stock with other regional CMs has dropped as has his chances of heading a federal front This will cheer ModiAs for Amma the Tamil Nadu police have apparently filed a case against a woman in France for social media rumourmongering about Ammarsquos health She has been at Apollo Hospital mdash incidentally where her mentor MG Ramachandran died mdash since September 22 for fever and dehydration which is ordinarily treatable in a day or two No one has stated the cause A London specialist in multiple organ failure and critical care flew in Posters have mysteriously appeared around Chennai from supporters threatening suicide if shersquos not publicly shown immediately Residents have stocked up on supplies remembering that after MGR died his cadrersquos grief led to widespread violence DMK supremo M Karunanidhi even asked the acting Governor to step in which he did according to an official release he went to her room and looked at herAmma is Modirsquos friend and pillar but in the last elections she showed some Delhi ambition her state controls 40 MPs In 2019 she can play a key role in a fractured Parliament Beyond her one sees nothing but churn in state politics as Karunanidhi himself is at least 93 His son Stalin is a 60ish dud Rajnikanth missed his window of opportunity In TN therefore there isnrsquot going to be a leader who can pose an obstacle to Modirsquos second term No wonder Modirsquos been smiling this past week Though in politics as in life you never know what next week will bringSenior journalist Aditya Sinha is a contributor to the recently published anthology House Spirit Drinking in India He tweets autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom