Closer to credible nuclear deterrence

A day after its 64th Republic Day India crossed a threshold in its quest to acquire credible nuclear deterrence At 140 PM on January 27 the DRDO announced the success of the final developmental test of its 700km range K15 missile from an underwater platform This submarine launched ballistic missile SLBM known at various times as Sagarika Shaurya Dhanush and K15 during its development had already been consecutively launched successfully 10 times from under water and thrice from land Since this is a missile that cannot afford to fail India officially announced its possession for the first time only after this stringent testing schedule The mediumrange ballistic missile K15 was successfully testfired by DRDO from an underwater platform off Indiarsquos east coast last month But the K15 is not exactly a ballistic missile As per journalists briefed by DRDO scientists its more accurate description would be a hypersonic cruise missile or a hybrid propulsion missile since it travels within the earthrsquos atmosphere Business Standard quoted DRDO chief VK Saraswat as explaining that ldquoLike a ballistic missile it is powered by solid fuel And like a cruise missile it can guide itself right up to the targetrdquo Onboard navigation computers kick in near the target guiding the missile to the target This means that unlike conventional ballistic missiles which cannot correct their course midway the K15 is an ldquointelligent missilerdquo capable of outmanoeuvring antimissile weapons The path taken by the Hyderabadmade missile made during the last test was a copybook match with the ideal trajectory plotted by computers As the missile neared the Andaman amp Nicobar Islands it made all the required diversionary manoeuvres to ward off hypothetical missiledowning efforts from the enemy The dummy warhead also exploded with precision at the designated target during the test conducted off Indiarsquos east coast Robust testing and intelligent nature of the missile make it highly reliable a mandatory requirement for the underwater leg of a nuclear triad Nuclear triad is the ability of a country to launch nuclear weapons from land air and sea The purpose of having a triad is to significantly reduce the chance of an enemy destroying all the nuclear forces in a first strike attack this ensures a credible threat of a second strike and thus increases a countryrsquos nuclear deterrence The landbased and airborne legs of Indiarsquos triad are already operational Aircraft the easiest to acquire are also the most vulnerable Their range is limited by midair refueling capacity The Sukhoi30 and Mirage2000 aircraft of the Indian Air Force can deliver nuclear payloads to Pakistan and up to central China Indiarsquos landbased missiles provide greater reach than the aircraft Agni1 700 km range and Agni2 2000 km range cover all of Pakistan while being launched from sites away from Indiarsquos western borders The Agni4 3500 km range and the Agni5 5000 km range cover up to Chinarsquos east coast Once operationalised the K15 will arm INS Arihant Indiarsquos only indigenous nuclear powered submarine Because nuclear submarines can stay under water undetected for a long time missiles launched from them have the greatest chance of survival from enemyrsquos first strike thus providing a credible second strike capability This means that the K15 carrying nuclear warheads will be launched from INS Arihant only after a nuclear attack on India The acquisition of a triad aligns Indiarsquos strategic capabilities with its nuclear doctrine Indiarsquos nuclear doctrine promulgated by the government in January 2003 mandates a strategy of lsquono first usersquo and lsquocredible minimum deterrencersquo Given the unequivocal lsquono first usersquo commitment a credible and invulnerable retaliatory strike capability is an imperative for deterrence Nuclear deterrence is not a function of the exchange ratio of the damages inflicted by both sides The crux of nuclear deterrence is survival of the retaliatory force and the adequacy of the survived force to inflict unacceptable punishment As the man who drafted the nuclear doctrine the late K Subrahmanyam explained ldquoIn Indiarsquos case it would mean that the ability of the country to retaliate against a nuclear attack on it by either of its two nuclear neighbours should be credible to the potential adversary In other words the retaliation should result in unacceptable damage in terms of population and property So long as India has a survivable retaliatory force the punishment is certainrdquo As India works on a longerrange SRBM and produces more nuclearpowered submarines to further enhance its credible minimum deterrence the successful testing of K15 missile is a clear message to potential adversaries that Indiarsquos promise to weather a nuclear attack and retaliate punitively is no hollow threat Sushant K Singh is Fellow for National Security at the Takshashila Institution and editor of PragatiThe Indian National Interest Reviewu00a0