India must adjust to the rise of China

The decision to invite US President Barack Obama to be the chief guest at the 66th Republic Day marks out in the clearest terms Prime Minister Narendra Modirsquos strategic outlook Having personally had to deal with the Chumur episode during the visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping in September Modi is familiar with just how the assertive leader of China is seeking to redraw the geopolitical landscape of AsiaIn the past year we have seen Beijing make inroads into Sri Lanka and witnessed our old ally Russia drifting into the Chinese camp We have also seen the PLA Navyrsquos forays into the Indian Ocean region which are barely concealed by the mask of antipiracy operationsIndiarsquos Prime Minister Modi expressed concern to Chinarsquos visiting President Xi Jinping on September 18 about ldquoincidentsrdquo on the two countriesrsquo disputed border as a standoff between troops at the frontier had eclipsed key talks PicGetty ImagesThis is not a new development but has intensified since 2010 as Xi jockeyed for power in Beijing But now backed by the modernised PLA and the huge cash reserves accumulated by the economy China is seeking to expand its economic and political universeIn the past months China has set out its ambitions through the establishment of the New Development or BRICS Bank the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and committing more than 40 billion to create transportation linkages under the aegis of its Silk Route initiative Speaking at the BRICS CEOrsquos meeting earlier in November Xirsquos message to the world was that in the next five years China would import goods worth 10 trillion send outward direct investments worth 12 trillion and also send out 500 million touristsAll this was part of a more ambitious scheme for a Free Trade Area Asia Pacific FTAAP which China got the 21member APEC to endorse Economists say that the FTAAP could provide a substantial boost to world trade as compared to the two regional trade pacts that are presently under prolonged negotiation the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP and the Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership RCEPWhat we are witnessing is the third surge of the Chinese economy one aimed at even closer integration of the Asian economies with much clearer Chinese leadership In a range of area China seeks to move from being a lowcost manufacturer to a producer of Chinesedesigned and made goodsThe other leg of this advance is political China insists in asserting its maritime claims in Asia even while seeking to draw it into a close economic embrace However in human affairs it is well known that national pride is often a greater concern than a desire for economic benefit As a result many Asian countries are bandwagoning with the United States in its military ldquorebalancerdquo to the regionIn the face off between China and the US we see features of competition and cooperation This was manifested by the FTAAP as well as three important bilateral agreements signed in Beijing between the US and China at the sidelines of the APEC summit The first was a bilateral agreement on climate change which could have the effect of driving the negotiations for a global climate deal The two other military agreements that are still under negotiations that seek to manage their military competitionBut the big Chinese achievement which also played itself out on the sidelines of the APEC summit was the fourpoint agreement between China and Japan that enabled the Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe to have a short but significant summitIn the agreement Japan accepted the need for ldquofacing history squarely and looking forward to the futurerdquo shorthand for its horrific wartime role in China Further it acknowledged that the two parties ldquohad different viewsrdquo about the issue of the SenkakuDiayou islands Japan may not quite have accepted that there is a dispute over the status of the islands but it has come close to itWhat do all these developments mean for India First after a period of rising tensions countries like the US and Japan are seeking to reset their ties with a rising China Even while standing up to China their approach seeks to accommodate it as well All three are densely connected with each other through trade and economic ties and are aware of the consequences of a breakdownSecond China is benchmarking itself against the United States While its ldquonew type of great power relationsrdquo seeks a nonconfrontational and cooperative relationship with the US it is bent on getting the US to accept it as an equal stakeholder in the Asia Pacific in future of course it may seek to supplant itIndiarsquos best course is the one that Prime Minister Modi is setting This seeks to position India as a ldquoswing staterdquo On one hand India has joined the New Development Bank the AIIB and resisted Americanled efforts to condemn Russia over Ukraine On the other it is actively wooing the US and its allies Japan and Australia in the Asia Pacific regionThis is also a prudent course both the US and Japan which have much denser relations with China are adjusting to the rise of China in a similar way competition and cooperation there is no reason why New Delhi should not Yet at a broad level in the area of trade finance maritime security nonproliferation and human rights India remains broadly aligned with the western countriesIndia has some sympathy with Chinarsquos demand for a more equitable world order But is also aware that Beijing in turn is not particularly sympathetic to Indiarsquos demand for a membership in bodies like the Nuclear Suppliers Group or the UN Security Council India remains deeply distrustful of Beijing because of the SinoIndian border dispute its relationship with Pakistan and its competitive efforts to displace India in its own backyard the South Asian region and its new activities in the Indian Ocean regionThe writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation New Delhi