According to IMD’s forecast, the chances of below normal and deficient rainfall are higher than usual, while the probability of above normal and excess rainfall is lower than climatological averages
-1776088575520_d.png "India likely to see below normal southwest monsoon this year, predicts IMD")
IMD has indicated that rainfall is most likely to fall in the 90-95 per cent range. Representational Pic/File
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted that India’s 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall (June-September) is likely to be below normal, at around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The long-period average rainfall for the country is 87 cm (based on 1971-2020 data).
IMD has indicated that rainfall is most likely to fall in the 90-95 per cent range, suggesting weaker-than-normal monsoon conditions, an official statement said.
One of the major reasons for below normal rainfall could be the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall activity in the country.
Higher chance of below-normal rainfall
According to IMD’s forecast, the chances of below normal and deficient rainfall are higher than usual, while the probability of above normal and excess rainfall is lower than climatological averages.
Forecast breakdown-
- Deficient rainfall: 35 per cent probability
- Below normal: 31 per cent probability
- Normal: 27 per cent probability
- Above normal: 6 per cent probability
- Excess: 1 per cent probability
Regional rainfall pattern
The spatial outlook suggests that below-normal rainfall may cover many parts of the country.
However, some regions are expected to perform better in parts of Northeast India, some areas in Northwest India and parts of South Peninsular India, an official statement said.
These regions may receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country is likely to remain below normal.
IMD has noted changing ocean conditions influencing the monsoon:
- Weak La Nina-like conditions are shifting towards ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific
- There is a possibility of El Nino development during the monsoon season, which can weaken rainfall
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, but may turn positive towards the end of the season
These ocean-atmosphere patterns are key drivers of India’s monsoon performance.
The snow cover factor
The IMD also observed that snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere between January and March 2026 was slightly below normal, the statement said.
It said that the snow cover in Eurasia and northern regions often has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall, meaning reduced snow cover can sometimes influence rainfall patterns.
The IMD will release an updated monsoon forecast in the last week of May 2026, followed by monthly updates during the season.
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