Normally, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15
If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as expected, it will be the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it was recorded on May 23, according to IMD data. Representational pic
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala in the next four-five days, much earlier than the usual date of June 1.
The conditions are likely to become favourable for the further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of South Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area, some parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, South and Central Bay of Bengal, Northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeastern states during the same period, IMD said.
As per the weather department’s earlier forecast, the monsoon onset over Kerala was expected by May 27.
If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as expected, it will be the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it was recorded on May 23, according to IMD data.
"Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during next 4-5 days," the IMD said in an update on Tuesday afternoon.
Normally, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.
The monsoon had set in over the southern state on May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, May 29 the year prior to that, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.
Last month, the weather bureau had predicted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the country this year, ruling out the possibility of El Niño conditions, which are associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
According to IMD, the rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal', while rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient'; between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is 'below normal'; between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is 'above normal'; and more than 110 per cent is considered 'excess' precipitation.
The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP). It is also vital for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country.
(With PTI inputs)
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