Explainer: Turkiye's pledge of support for Sweden's NATO entry is tied to goals on security and EU membership

Turkiye made a surprise pledge to drop its opposition to Sweden joining NATO paving the way for the Nordic country to become a member of the Western military allianceNATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg heralded the agreement Monday after talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson Associated Press reportedStoltenberg said Turkiye had agreed to support Swedens NATO bid ldquoby putting the issue to a vote in Parliament ndash in return for deeper cooperation with Sweden on security issues and a pledge from Sweden to revive Turkiyes quest for EU membership The agreement also says Sweden and Turkiye will step up trade and investment with each otherHungary the only other NATO holdout on Sweden is also expected to drop its opposition Hungarys foreign minister said Tuesday that his countrys ratification of Swedens NATO membership was now just a ldquotechnical matterrdquoErdogan has been uncharacteristically quiet since the agreement was publicized declining to comment on the reasons for his apparent change of heart on Swedens NATO membershipIt remains to be seen how quickly the issue will be taken up by Turkiyes ParliamentHere are key factors and possible incentives that Turkiye is considering as it weighs Swedens entry into NATOErdogans opposition to Swedish membership in NATO had focused heavily on his belief that the Nordic country has been too lenient toward elements of the Turkish and Kurdish diasporas that Turkiye views as security threats namely people associated with militant Kurdish groups and others connected to a 2016 coup attempt against ErdoganAn agreement signed between Turkiye Sweden and Finland last year set out to tackle some of these concerns and Sweden recently tightened its antiterrorism laws making support for an extremist organization punishable by up to eight years imprisonmentAlso readMaharashtra weather updates Thunderstorm with lightning heavy rainfall likely in Vidarbha alert issuedSweden also says it has cracked down on the activities of people connected to the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK which has waged a 39year insurgency in TurkiyeUnder the agreement outlined Monday Sweden said it would also work against the Syrian wing of the PKK known as the YPGA related issue for Erdogan has been antiTurkiye and antiIslam protests held in Stockholm some of which involved the burning of the QuranAlthough condemned by the Swedish government the demonstrations drew strong reaction from Turkiye which criticized Sweden ldquowhich has strong freespeech protectionsrdquo for allowing public displays of antiMuslim sentimentBut how Sweden deals with Kurdish militant groups has always been way more important for Turkiye than the protests said Cigdem Ustun secretary general of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in IstanbulUstum described Turkiyes statements over the Quranburnings as ldquoa tool in the negotiationsrdquo adding that ldquofor Turkiye it was mainly about terrorist organizationsrdquoErdogans promise to Stoltenberg to bring Swedens NATO membership for a ratification vote in the Turkish Parliament may also have been linked to Turkiyes efforts to upgrade the countrys fleet of F16 fighter jetsTurkiye has asked the US for approval to buy 40 new F16s as well as kits to upgrade its existing fleet The request was backed by the White House but ran into opposition in Congress Both US and Turkish officials have insisted that any such deal would not be linked to Swedens NATO membershipBut within hours of Erdogan apparently dropping his veto on Sweden President Joe Biden signaled that the US intended to proceed with the F16 sale in consultation with Congress In a statement welcoming Erdogans agreement to bring Swedens NATO bid before Parliament Biden said he will work with Turkiye ldquoon enhancing defense and deterrence in the EuroAtlantic areaThe F16 deals biggest critic Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez DNJ appeared to soften his stance saying ldquothere may be a way forwardrdquo Menendez has opposed any F16 deal over the potential threat to Turkiyes neighbor GreeceThe F16s ldquohave been an important part of the negotiations although theres no formal link said Ustun Its obvious theres been some progress in that regardrdquoEarly on Monday Erdogan made a surprise warning that he would block Swedens attempt to become a NATO ally unless European members of the military organization ldquopave the wayrdquo for Turkiye to join the worlds biggest trading blocIt was the first time that Erdogan had linked the two countries aspirations in this wayFollowing his remarks European officials rebuffed any link between Swedens NATO membership and Turkiyes 36year bid to join the EUldquoYou cannot link the two processesrdquo European Commission spokesperson Dana Spinant saidStoltenberg reiterated the point saying that Turkiyes relationship with the EU was ldquonot an issue for NATO its an issue for the European Unionrdquo But he told reporters that ldquowhat Sweden agreed today as an EU member was to support actively the efforts to reinvigorate Turkiyes EU accession processrdquoSweden also said it would seek improved customs arrangements and take steps to implement visafree European travel for Turkish citizensStill few expect any accelerated movement on Turkiyes EU membership talks which stalled in 2018 because of the countrys democratic backsliding and poor record on human rights AP