More confusion looms over Strait of Hormuz after Iran attacks three ships near waterway

Confusion deepened Wednesday in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacked three ships near the crucial waterway whose closure has plunged the world into an energy crisis after tankers carrying a fifth of the worlds oil were blocked from using the channelThe attacks unfolded just a day after US President Donald Trump said he would extend the twoweek ceasefire with Iran The Islamic Republic said it fired on three outbound ships and seized two calling it retaliation for the American naval blockade of Iranian ports and for the US firing on and seizing an Iranian ship that did not stop when hailed by a vessel enforcing the blockadeAttacks on shipping dwindled starting in midMarch as Iran imposed effective control over the strait The mere risk of attack was enough to deter ships from trying to get through while a few ships used an Iranianapproved lane near the coast Iran demanded details on cargo ownership and crew and on at least some occasions imposed a USD1 per barrel tax on oil and oil products or USD 2 million for a large tankerHere is a look at whats known and not known about the situation in the straitAfter a pause attacks on shipping have resumedIrans semiofficial news agencies reported that the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard attacked a third ship Wednesday in the strait Nour News Fars and Mehr all reported the attack by the Guard on a vessel called the Euphoria They said the vessel had become stranded on the Iranian coast without elaborating The Guard seized the other two ships that were attacked Iranian state television separately reportedThat incident followed two ship attacks on Saturday that ended a lull that began in midMarch The seized ships were the Liberiaflagged Epaminondas and the Panamaflagged MSC Francesca both container ships It was not clear under what terms the ships were trying to pass the strait The MSC shipping company did not answer an email asking about the vesselThe attacks follow a sudden reversal in the Iranian stance over the weekend as the Iranian foreign minister announced Friday that the strait was open only to be contradicted the next day by the Revolutionary Guard Six cruise ships stuck in the Persian Gulf since late February took advantage of the narrow window and slipped through the strait But since then traffic has dried upThe resumption of attacks reflects in part genuine confusion about when passage is permitted said Torbjorn Soltvedt principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft Conflicting statements emerged from Trump about a full reopening and from the Iranian foreign minister about a limited reopening Then things shifted very quickly Saturday when the Guard said the strait was closedAdditionally Soltvedt said its in Irans interest to keep insurance premiums high with sporadic attacks Their main leverage in negotiations with the US is being able to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and insurance is a big part of that Some vessels have passed the Iranian vetting system and some have relied on diplomatic requests from home governments But hundreds of ships and thousands of crew members are still stuckThe US is enforcing a blockade but some Iranian oil gets throughThe US Navy boarded and seized a large tanker carrying Iranian oil south of the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean some 2000 miles from the strait That underlined the US power to seize vessels that violate the blockade well after they have left the vicinity of the strait The US military which is enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea well way from Iranian drones and speedboats says it has turned around 20 Iranlinked vesselsHowever shipping intelligence companies say that a number of ships carrying Iranian oil have passed the blockade Lloyds List Intelligence says a steady flow of shadow fleet traffic has passed in and out of the gulf including 11 tankers with Iranian cargo that have left the gulf outside the strait since April 13 The dilemma for the US is The tighter the blockade the greater the pain is in the global oil market so there are conflicting priorities there and it seems there is a policy of not intercepting every single shipment of Iranian oil Soltvedt saidAdditionally almost all that oil is going to China and the US has to manage that relationship as well with Trump planning to visit from May 14 to 15 Capt Tim Hawkins the spokesman for US Central Command confirmed Wednesday that the military blockade is against all Iranian ships entering or leaving Iranian ports However he said humanitarian shipments including food medical supplies and other goods essential for civilians are being permitted subject to inspectionHawkins pushed back on outside reports of ships getting past the US dragnet and pointed to remarks by the head of US Central Command Adm Brad Cooper who claimed Friday that no ship has evaded US forcesReopening the strait will take timeShip owners and insurers will need more than a simple announcement of a peace deal to venture through the strait as they did before the war Even when the war ends analytical and data firm Rystad Energy says it will take six to eight weeks just to reposition the worlds tanker network Ship owners and insurer would need two to five weeks to get comfortable with a new operating environment and to resume normal activityShip owners will want something thats a bit more concrete than what we have now Soltvedt said What is needed is something more comprehensive than an informal truce with the two sides far apart on key issues such as Irans nuclear and ballistic missile programs Even then shipping companies will have the longterm threat hanging over them given Irans missile and drone capabilities he said They can play this card again in the futureThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole 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