President Donald Trump insists his new North American trade deal will deliver a victory for US factory workers by returning many high-paying jobs to the United States. Maybe. But a review of the agreement suggests that it could also mean higher prices for consumers and more inefficiencies for businesses. And the biggest winners might end up being robots and the companies that make them.

As Americans vote in the midterm elections, Trump is heralding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a triumph for his antagonistic trade policy an approach that he says will usher in "a new dawn for the American auto industry and the American auto worker." The pact, unveiled Sept. 30, does appear to meet some of Trump's goals: It could shift more factory production to the United States, thereby reversing a long-standing flow of jobs to lower-wage Mexico. And it could result in better working conditions and perhaps higher pay for Mexico's long-suffering labourers. But shifting away from a business model that relies on Mexican labour would likely mean higher-priced cars for American consumers.