Beijing calculates its next steps in Iran ceasefire ahead of Trump's trip to China

With a fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran holding for now China is calculating its role in helping find a durable endgame to the war in the Middle EastAfter prodding China which is more reliant on Persian Gulf oil than the US to get involved in reopening the chokedoff Strait of Hormuz US President Donald Trump told French news outlet Agence FrancePresse this week that he believed China played a part in encouraging Iran to agree to this weeks temporary truceThree diplomats who were familiar with Chinas behindthescenes efforts also confirmed that Beijing the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil used its leverage to urge the Iranians back to the negotiating table It was a major moment for Beijing which had decried the US and Israels war against its economic partner Iran as misguided before getting directly involved in the push to call off the fighting including discouraging strikes by IranTalks between the sides are expected to begin in Pakistan this weekend With the precarious truce hanging in the balance China will now need to make a careful calculation about whether it will tread deeper into the waters of diplomacy as it weighs the impact that a longlasting war could have on the global economyMiddle East turmoil goes against Beijings interests while its efforts may boost its global standing and strengthen its hand in negotiating thorny trade issues during Trumps visit to China next month Beijing is not in the business of expending its leverage as a favour to others or for the greater good Danny Russel a former senior diplomat in exUS president Barack Obamas administration saidIran war puts pressure on Chinas economyMao Ning a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters this week that China has worked actively to help bring about an end to the conflict The Chinese economy is already feeling pressure from Irans effective shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz where about 20 per cent of the worlds crude normally flows The blockade is having an enormous impact on Asia a factor that seems to have informed the Chinese governments efforts to consult with Pakistan to help mediate a twoweek ceasefireChina does not appear interested in providing guarantees for Irans longterm security as part of a deal to end hostilities something Tehran has hoped for and sees as critical to deterring the US and Israel from carrying out strikes in the future Irans ambassador to China suggested this week that its two closest allies acirciquestiquest China and Russia acirciquestiquest as well as the United Nations ensure the guarantee which Tehran has sought before without successAsked about that possibility Mao would only say that we hope that all parties will resolve their disputes through dialogue and negotiation Still Chinese officials are cognizant that a lasting war threatens to have a real impact on Beijings bottom line Premier Li Qiang announced last month that the government was projecting relatively modest 45 per cent to 5 per cent economic growth this year during a property slump and growing uncertainty around the globe Its the lowest growth target since 1991Ultimately Chinas foremost goal is growth and development according to one of the diplomats familiar with Chinese deliberations on the war The diplomat who like the others was not authorised to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity added that a continued closure of the strait ran counter to that interest It not only limits the flow of a significant supply of crude to China but also cuts off an important shipping lane for Chinese exports to the MideastHow Iran diplomacy could play into TrumpXi meetingTrump will likely underscore that argument to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their muchanticipated Beijing summit next month The talks which were originally slated for this month were pushed back so Trump could oversee the US bombardment of IranThat the United States and Iran have at least temporarily edged away from the precipice of a catastrophic escalation owes in part to Chinas support for the ceasefire that Pakistan brokered Ali Wyne a senior research and advocacy adviser for USChina relations at the International Crisis Group saidEven if shortlived that breakthrough affords Beijing another opportunity to present itself as a stabilising force and Washington as a reckless one To be certain Chinas view is shaped by a heavy measure of skepticismSome in Beijing see Trumps decision to launch the Iran war as well as the military operation in January to capture thenVenezuelan president Nicolas Maduro as being at least partially motivated by his strategy at containing China diplomats say Beijing was a major customer and investor in the South American countrys oil industryPrivately the Chinese have made clear that the US and Iran would have to show compromise for a deal to coalesce Beijing is also looking to press Trump to remove sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with Iran as part of a potential settlement diplomats 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