Pak boat op has left intel agencies red-faced

The incident involving the sinking of a fishing vessel off the coast of Gujarat on New Yearrsquos Day has raised more questions than it has answered To start with the Ministry of Defence press release announcing the event was itself less than categorical While its headline noted that the Coast Guard had intercepted a ldquosuspect boat carrying explosivesrdquo the text of the release did not thereafter mention ldquoexplosivesrdquo though it did say eventually that the crew set the boat on fire ldquowhich resulted in an explosionrdquo All it said was that as per intelligence inputs on December 31 a fishing boat from Keti Bandar a small port near Karachi ldquowas planning some illicit transaction in Arabian Sea sicrdquo It did not mention the word ldquoterroristrdquo or ldquoterrorismrdquo eitherThis photograph released by the Defence Ministry on January 2 shows the Pakistani boat that blew up and sank during a highspeed chase at sea File picTo make up for it as it were the Minister of Defence Manohar Parrikar spoke up two days later on Monday morning when he declared that the men in the boat ldquowere suspected terroristshellip mainly because they committed suiciderdquo smugglers would have simply surrendered Since the Coast Guard has not managed to pick up any body or any other debris the ministerrsquos claim is on the basis of circumstantial evidenceThere are several problems with the story as it has been put out and many of these have been listed in the internet or in newspapers But what the incident does seem to bring out is the continuing dysfunction of our intelligence system and the high levels of incompetence in matters of national security First the National Technical Research Organisation had no business to directly provide the intercept to the Coast Guard along with the Navy Second since the Navy is the lead agency in coastal security the Coast Guard should have taken action after consulting with the Navy brassThe NTRO is supposed to deal with collecting information through hightech means But even if they got the intercept they should have given it to the MultiAgency Centre MAC which has been specially created to coordinate and analyse inputs relating to terrorism from different sources The fishing vessel drama was relatively slow moving The intercept happened a day or two earlier and there was more than enough time for the MAC to have assessed and analysed it In the world of intelligence one bit of information is not particularly useful unless it is put together with other pieces and put through an analytical process In the case of the Mumbai attack of 2008 the key failure was not in the information received there was information about the Pakistani plan and even the movement of the terrorist vessel the problem was in our inability to effectively analyse the information and understand how events would unfold on the groundIn this case too in an alternative scenario the boat could have been allowed to make its way to the shore shadowed by the Coast Guard or better still the marine commandos of the Navy who are trained in stealthy operations The terrorists could have been quickly rounded up when they landed and India would have had a coup of sorts in exposing Pakistan once again On the other hand if the aim of the boat was to transfer weapons or explosives to another vessel too the Coast Guard could have waited and caught both the terrorists and their contacts red handed Instead action took place at the very edge of Indiarsquos disputed maritime boundary with Pakistan making pursuit difficultUnfortunately all we have now is a lot of red faces People are not sure as to what exactly happened Defence Minister Parrikar says that the fact that they committed suicide indicates that they were terrorists On the other hand the LeT terrorists have consistently preferred to fight and die rather than simply commit harakiri In that scenario the alleged terrorists in the boat would have allowed the Coast Guard to approach their boat and then opened fire and died in the process The idea that the four people simply went down into the hold of the boat and set it on fire does not quite jellThe government claims would be more credible if they released the pictures of terrorists on the boat According to some reports citing the Coast Guard the people in the boat were not dressed like fishermen Then how were they dressed Surely if the boat was being tracked and then approached by the Coast Guard ship we should have more and better pictures of how the action proceededIn a situation like this it is unlikely that we will learn the whole truth But the government needs to urgently examine the sequence of events and ask the NTRO as to why it has gotten into the business of directly supplying intercepts to field agencies This is simply not its mandate The NTRO is supposed to provide raw intelligence to the various agencies who are then supposed to analyse it In the case of terroristrelated information the MAC has been set up to prevent anything falling through the cracks In this case clearly something hasSecond the government needs to find out just why the Navy was bypassed According to the government decision in the wake of the Mumbai attack the responsibility for coastal security has been given to the Indian Navy In other words if the Coast Guard is launching a major operation it needs to do so with the permission of the Navy chain of command especially since according to reports the Navy had also been given the same information and had assessed that it did not involve any threat to national security There seems to be a facile assumption in our security establishment that the next terrorist attack when it comes will be like the last one Hence the scenarios of seaborne Mumbai attack or the Kandahar hijack are being mooted The reality probably will be a twisted surprise The agencies should worry about the outlier scenarios rather than obsessing about their past failuresThe writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation New Delhi