Pakistan trending towards collapse

Since 1991 India has pursued a policy of engaging Pakistan regardless of what the latter has thrown at us bombs terror assaults fedayeen This has meant an effort to promote dialogue to resolve outstanding issues and develop ties with the civilian governments as against the military However two decades later it seems that this is not workingIf anything the deep state dominated by the military retains its iron grip on the system and the civilian system remains unable to get its act together The lsquoLion of Punjabrsquo Nawaz Sharif is looking like a lamb while his rival Bilawal Bhutto has become the butt of jokes and as for Imran Khan the less said the betterThere were expectations that Nawaz Sharif could keep the army in check and initiate an opening up to India But a year later he is a spent force and has been successfully boxed in by the army PicGetty ImagesMaybe the time has come to change course mdash not by reaching out to the military or taking recourse to titfortat covert war But by encouraging the peaceful breakup of Pakistan Across the Islamic world boundaries and states created by colonial powers are breaking down and there is no reason to assume that Pakistan ought to be an exception Using military means or a covert war would be counterproductive but there could be a way out by persuading the international community that this is the best course and by providing moral and political support to those who advocate separatism in PakistanNo doubt there will be Pakistanis who will claim that this is exactly what they always feared and that India has never reconciled to the creation of Pakistan But we most certainly do not advocate the annexation of Pakistani territory not even of Pakistan Occupied KashmirThe Bangladesh war is another issue But by now there is enough evidence to show that the responsibility for the loss of East Pakistan rests firmly with Islamabad All that India did was play the role of a midwife who actually prevented greater bloodshed and horrors Had India been the factor Pakistan could have reunited in the 19771984 period when antiIndian governments held swayActually from the outset it is Pakistan which has promoted violence to obtain the breakup of India In the 1950s and 1960s the ISI used its location in East Pakistan to aid the Naga and Mizo insurgencies In the 1980s after reestablishing themselves in Bangladesh they became the principal backers of ULFA and continued giving support to whichever dissident group they could find in the NortheastThen when opportunity arose in the west the ISI jumped into the fray in Punjab in the early 1980s and few years later into Jammu amp Kashmir Simultaneously they also began promoting terrorist attacks across the country There were two aims in mind First the breaking away of two important states of the Indian union Second encouraging communal violence with the view of developing an unbridgeable communal divide in the countryMost Indians even now believe that it is in their interest to have a stable and united Pakistan on their western borders notwithstanding the hostility they have faced in recent decades This is not because of any altruism but a perceived national interest in not having a failed nuclear state on our borders However without any particular Indian encouragement or assistance Pakistan is trending towards collapse and chaosThere is no dearth of fault lines in Pakistan The primary ones are ethnic pitting the dominant Punjabis against the Baloch and the Sindhis with the Mohajirs as a category of their own The newer one shaping up is one which pits the Pakhtundominated Taliban against Pakistan Then there are sectarian lines primarily dividing the Sunni and the Shia But the really complex one divides its dominant military from its civilian establishmentThe idea of Pakistan breaking up has been around for a while There are two impulses for this First is from within where ethnic groups such as the Pakhtuns Baloch and Sindhis want out of the Punjabdominated system The second is from the point of view of the global community for whom Pakistan has proved to be a menace as an exporter of terrorism and a proliferator of nuclear weapons But so far the idea has been confined to think tanks and some individuals Smaller units will certainly reduce the megalomania of the generals who have exaggerated notions of Pakistanrsquos standing in the comity of nations by virtue of its nuclear weapons and ability to give pain to its neighbours namely India and AfghanistanThe one thing that can save Pakistan is the normalisation of ties with India and opening up to the larger economy to its east But there are equally powerful forces that have prevented this from happening and they show no signs of weakeningThere were expectations that Nawaz Sharif was the leader who could keep the army in check and initiate an opening up to India However a year later we find that Nawaz is a spent force and has been successfully boxed in by the army No one is clear as to where things go from hereSo far India has displayed little or no inclination from getting involved in Pakistanrsquos internal issues Islamabadrsquos claims to the contrary notwithstanding But now our own security demands that we begin thinking about the unthinkable and consulting with likeminded countries on the issueA nucleararmed Pakistan needs to be handled carefully and there is little scope for adventurism hereAs noted we are not advocating a violent breakup but a velvet event of the kind that led to the emergence of the Czech and Slovak RepublicsThe writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation New Delhi