The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, although its communication may turn more hawkish as rising oil prices and a weaker rupee complicate the inflation outlook, according to an economist at HSBC. 

Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC’s chief India economist and macro strategist, projects a gradual tightening with about two rate hikes beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026 rather than an aggressive tightening cycle, as per reports.