Monsoon forecast cut to 90 per cent, IMD warns of below-normal rainfall across India

The India Meteorological Department IMD has predicted that India is likely to receive belownormal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season Overall rainfall between June and September is expected to be around 90 per cent of the usual average with a possible variation of 4 per centThis is lower than the earlier estimate of 92 per cent issued in April and is also the lowest premonsoon forecast released by the IMD in recent yearsAccording to the weather department there is a 60 per cent probability that rainfall this year will fall in the ldquodeficientrdquo category which refers to rainfall below 90 per cent of the Long Period Average LPAThe IMD however clarified that it does not officially declare drought conditions and only classifies rainfall levelsMonsoon arrival likely delayedThe monsoon which was earlier expected to arrive in Kerala and southern regions on May 26 is now likely to reach the state during the first week of JuneMinistry of Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran said ldquoThe monsoon has arrived on Indiarsquos southern seas but has unfortunately not arrived on the landrdquoSeveral regions may receive belownormal rainfallIMD Director General M Mohapatra said northwest central and southern India are likely to witness belownormal rainfall this seasonThe weather agencyrsquos forecast suggests that most parts of the country may receive less rainfall than usual except some areas of northeast India parts of the eastern coast and isolated pockets in eastcentral India where normal to abovenormal rainfall is possibleThe monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is expected to remain around 90 per cent of the LPA which is based on an average rainfall of 87 cm recorded between 1971 and 2020Probability of South West monsoonWhat is happening right now with El NinoAt present weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean are ldquoneutralrdquo meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina is active But the IMD says these conditions neutral El NinoSouthern Oscillation ENSO is now slowly moving towards an El Nino phase which is usually linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter weather in India while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole IOD conditions are expected to continue during the monsoon seasonWeather models used by the IMD indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to strengthen during the southwest monsoon months from June to SeptemberHeatwave risk and rising temperaturesThe weather department also warned that both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to remain ldquoon the higher siderdquo during JuneAbovenormal temperatures are expected across most parts of the country while several states could face more heatwave days than usualStates likely to experience abovenormal heatwave conditions include Uttar Pradesh Haryana Punjab Bihar Odisha Chhattisgarh Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh Some parts of Maharashtra Telangana Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may also witness heatwave conditionsThe IMD warned that prolonged heat could affect public health water availability power consumption and essential servicesImpact on agriculture and water resourcesThe IMD said belownormal rainfall may create challenges for agriculture hydropower generation drinking water supply and ecosystem sustainabilityThe department advised governments and local administrations to focus onWater conservation measuresEfficient water managementDrought preparednessAgricultural contingency planningEarly warning systems and heat action plans