The fact behind the pact

Who between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiv Sena has won the battle but lost in the truce Political analysts party workers and their bosses have their own takes about the arrangement Analysts seem confused and party workers divided in their perspectives Sena and BJP leaders have been independently telling their worried cadres that they havent committed harakiri in going together for the Lok Sabha Assembly and all other elections in MaharashtraA more interesting phase lies ahead for the two parties when they sit together to share seats and resolve clashes that arise because of local interests and pressure from the top A mystery over the chief ministers post should remain a blind spot in the journey that the two parties have embarked on together Blind spots are where the travellers meet with an accidentIn a blah blah moment the Sena and BJP said that Hindutva the need for fighting terrorism mitigating the agrarian crisis and the peoples wish for the union of nationalist parties brought them back in an alliance which had been severed because of some misunderstanding In reality it was the urgency to beat the united front of the opposition Staking claim to form the next governments in the Centre and Maharashtra precedes any other agenda that the parties have been bragging about since the declaration last MondayWhy must they be togetherFor Lok Sabha elections the saffron alliance is unlikely to face obstacles except for some places that could be exchanged between them The alignments for the seats that were fought in 2014 should remain unchanged though some candidates will change for both parties The BJPs hunch is that the senior leaders who have had a good stint in state politics should be more likely to win than some MPs who were elected in the Modi wave but did not prove promising Dont be surprised if veterans such as Eknath Khadse Raver Girish Bapat Pune Subhash Deshmukh Solapur etc are fielded to make sure that Maharashtra sends as many MPs to Modis aidMaharashtra has the second largest strength of Lok Sabha MPs 48 after Uttar Pradesh BJP president Amit Shah has set an onerous task of winning 45 seats three more than 2014s kitty from Maharashtra Very demanding for the BJP cadre This is good news for the Sena because this time it is the BJP that needs Senas MPs more and it should be seen backing the Thackerays like never beforeSmaller allies warySmaller allies of the BJP are in a quandary They feel ignored in the prepoll alliance The BJP said it would allot seats to the allies first and the Sena should follow suit if it has any allies The two will then divide the remaining seats between them Republican Partys splinter leader Ramdas Athawale wants a ticket from Mumbai SouthCentral Lok Sabha constituency as BJPs ally but Sena wont vacate itIf he gets to contest from Baramati against Supriya Sule Mahadev Jankar state minister would most probably be asked to contest on the BJP symbol this time Another ally Vinayak Mete has no stakes whatsoever in the Lok Sabha Minister of state Sadabhau Khot who split Raju Shettis farmers party to side with the BJP expects something more in bargainWas it ever BJP vs SenaSome findings of the 2014 Assembly results throw up surprises and explain why the BJP and Sena came together after fighting separately It is not because of the division of Hindutva votes but because they have a common rival in the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party Digging deeper shows that the BJP won more seats in a direct fight with the Congress in a quadrangular contest Likewise the Sena bagged more seats against NCP in a straight fightThe Congress won 42 in which NCP finished second at just 4 while in NCPs 41 victories only in 7 had Congress finished in the second place The votes the BJP and Sena polled together in 2014 were more than the total of the Congress and NCPs vote shares BJP snatched a mere 13 sitting seats from the Sena while the ruling partys major share came by beating the Congress and partly the NCP It would be interesting to see how these 13 seats are shared for the October polls No wonder politics continues to be a game without rules in place leaving decisionmaking to the regulator ndash the people who voteDharmendra Jore is political editor midday He tweets dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomCatch up on all the latest Crime National International and Hatke news here Also download the new midday Android and iOS apps to get latest updates