Trump's sanctions waiver offers India temporary relief, not lasting certainty: GTRI

The Global Trade Research Initiative GTRI on Saturday said India should safeguard its energy security and buy oil on commercial terms as the US waiver on tariffs up to 100 per cent on countries importing oil from Russia is not a lasting certainty according to news agency PTIUS President Donald Trump has waived tariffs and several sanctions provisions under a new law targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas sparing countries such as India and China from the immediate threat of additional duties of up to 100 per centGTRI said the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act SRIA only offers India temporary relief from threatened additional duties of up to 100 per cent linked to Russian oil purchases but can be withdrawn at any stageBut the relief is reversible Washington can restore the tariffs anytime leaving India and other buyers uncertain about future US action it saidLeverage in trade negotiationsIt noted that SRIA remains a law and the US can revive the tariff threat as a leverage to seek greater concessions in bilateral trade talks with IndiaThe think tank said US Trade Representative will continue monitoring Russian energy purchases allowing Washington to review the waiver and retain the tariff threat as leverage in future negotiations as per PTIFor India the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty India should protect its energy security buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava saidWaiver can be withdrawnOn Friday Trump said he had submitted the required written certification to Congress stating that the waivers were in the national interest of the United States along with a report explaining the basis for the decisionHowever GTRI pointed out that US had implemented the Graham Act while putting the penalties on holdIt provided for a 100 per cent increase in duties on goods from the five leading facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion alongside a 500 per cent increase in duties on goods from RussiaTrump simultaneously invoked Section 115 of the Act to waive these duties The waiver has no fixed expiry date but it can be withdrawn Srivastava saidSrivastava pointed out that the latest move from Washington reflects the trade uncertainty where the US threatens tariffs and then retreats when enforcing them conflicts with its own interestsUSRussia diesel agreement hard to defend for Trump administrationGTRI noted that Russias share of Indian oil imports fell from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August It said despite the higher prices India bought more from the US and from the UAESrivastava said that SRIA became law on September 18 but the US agreement on October 9 to buy Russian diesel made it difficult for the Trump administration to penalise other buyers of Russian oilPunishing other countries for buying Russian energy while doing so itself would invite accusations of double standards he said He pointed out that US had agreed not to raise tariffs on China until January 10 under a deal reached during President Xi Jinpings US visit last monthChina already had protection against US tariff increases until January 10 The message is clear US interests determine when penalties apply while the ability to retaliate helps secure protection China can push back India risks repeated pressure unless it demonstrates that coercion carries a cost Srivastava saidWith inputs from PTI