Strong El Nino event taking shape: Here's what it means for India

As global weather and climate agencies forecast strong El Nino conditions in the coming months concerns have emerged about droughts and other extreme weather events across the world including India which stares at belownormal monsoon rainfallWorld Meteorological Organizations SecretaryGeneral Celeste Saulo said last week in a statement that El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong eventThis will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world she addedThe forecast holds significance for India as it has already registered a rainfall deficit of about 40 per cent in June with central India worst affected recording a deficit of 504 per cent The country saw the fifthlowest 995 mm rainfall in the month since 1901To make matters worse in its monthly forecast on June 30 the India Meteorological Department IMD stated that July is most likely to see 94 per cent of the longperiod average rainfall LPA despite showers expected across the country in the first seven to 10 days of the monthLPA refers to rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period such as a month or a season averaged over a long period typically 30 to 50 years IMD uses the period between 1971 and 2020 to calculate the LPASo far in July India has witnessed a large surplus of rainfall in the first eight days The normal rainfall for this period is 651 mm however the country as a whole has seen 923 mm of rainfallThis does not necessarily mean that the Sword of Damocles of a widening deficit has been lifted In fact with El Nino conditions expected to become stronger the deficit could be exacerbated The IMD has already listed El Nino as one of the key reasons behind belownormal rainfall in JuneEl Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overheadEl Nino which leads to less monsoon rainfall in India is known to have a warming effect over the planet Its counter phase La Nina is typically responsible for a cooling effect The third phase of the ENSO is a neutral phaseStronger El Nino conditions can spell disaster for Indias peak sowing period as more than half of Indias kharifcultivated area is entirely rainfedAccording to the Agriculture Ministry data sowing of kharif crops including paddy lagged significantly in the country It said the total area under kharif sowing was 18272 lakh hectares as of June down by 23 per cent compared to 23646 lakh hectares a year earlierRice as well as pulses oilseeds coarse cereals and cotton saw lower sowing last month than in June 2025Speaking to PTI Dr Vishwas Chitale fellow at the Council on Energy Environment and Water CEEW said The monsoon remains the backbone of Indias agriculture water security and rural economy The concern about deficit rainfall is heightened by the IMDs revised seasonal forecast of 90 per cent of the LPA indicating a belownormal monsoon seasonTo tackle El Ninos impact on various sectors the Prime Ministers Office PMO on Tuesday held a review meeting and took stock of preparedness measuresIn a statement the PMO said that during the meeting the Union agriculture secretary made a detailed presentation on preparedness for the possible impact of El Nino during the kharif seasonDistrict Agriculture Contingency Plans have been updated for 262 vulnerable districts and standard operating procedures SoPs for Managing El Nino Risks in Indian Agriculture have been issued by the Indian Council for Agricultural Research for Krishi Vigyan Kendras in the districts the statement addedThere are also concerns about abovenormal temperatures due to the more potent El Nino conditionsThe IMD last month said that June was hotter than usual The monthly average maximum temperature last month was 3567 degrees Celsius which is 106 degrees above normal making it the 15th hottest June on recordIn its forecast for July the weather department said that the maximum temperature is expected to be above normal in most parts of the country in July except in isolated pockets of westcentral IndiaThe minimum temperature too will be above normal in most parts of the country barring pockets in central and northeast IndiaThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice