Budget high

The week gone by began on a promising note markets gained sharply on Monday There was an equally sharp correction on Tuesday and thereafter the markets were in a normal pattern of up down and sideways The week ended with gains of 72303 points or 315 per cent on the Sensex which closed at 2370915 points Nifty gained 22980 points or 329 per cent to close at 721075 points BSE100 BSE200 and BSE500 gained 311 per cent 292 per cent and 284 per cent respectively while BSEMIDCAP gained 195 per cent and BSESMAALCAP 200 per centFinance Minister Arun Jaitley centre with MoS Finance Jayant Sinha right and officials of his ministry take part in the lsquoHalwa Ceremonyrsquo to mark the beginning of printing of budgetary documents in New Delhi on Friday PicPTISector highlightIn sectors the best performer was BSEMETAL up 852 per cent followed by BSECAPGOOD 595 per cent BSEPSY 421 per cent and BSEREALTY 403 per cent On the losing sector there was just one BSECONDUR down 159 per centIn individual stocks there were big gainers with Bank of Baroda up 2208 per cent followed by metal stocks Vedanta 1793 per cent Tata Steel 1625 per cent and Hindalco 1328 per cent Larsen and Toubro gained 920 per cent There were few losers led by BHEL 253 per cent HDFC 212 per cent and Cipla 105 per cent Titan Industries was a big loser down 616 per centPerformanceThe Indian rupee lost 22 paisa or 032 per cent to close at R 6845 Dow Jones had a good week and gained 41815 points or 262 per cent to close at 1639199 points Markets globally were stronger but the undercurrent is weak and there is a great deal of uncertainty in the minds of investors about which way the markets are headed The week ahead sees the budget session of parliament beginning with the Railway budget to be presented on February 26 The Union budget would be presented in the following week on Monday February 29 Prior to these events the February series would expire on Thursday February 25 The current value of Nifty at 721075 points is down by 21170 points or 285 per cent compared to the January expiry of 742245 pointsGST on the anvilThere seems a likelihood of Goods and Services Tax GST Bill becoming a reality The new chairman of the GST committee of State Finance Ministers is Amit Mitra of the Trinamool Congress TMCOther regional parties who head some of the states have realised the advantages of GST and the benefit to their state It could therefore happen that the Congress may walkout or abstain and the other parties vote on the GST bill favourably Its early days and one needs to keep onersquos fingers crossed Without being optimistic this bill has the potential to become a game changerFingers crossedWith just about a week to go before the budget is presented itrsquos time for a list of expectations This time around there seem to be not too many from Finance Minister Arun JaitleyThe good things though is the falling crude price has been a bonanza and the government has collected a huge amount from the hike in excise duties on petrol and diesel He has also saved on the subsidy earlier which no longer existsIn case the government decides to kick start the economy and launch investment plans for infrastructure the money is there and this can be done without disturbing the fiscal maths This comfort would probably be available for the first time in many many yearsGlobal volatility is a sign of nervousness and would continue in the coming days and weeks India has the budget coming up what would be the new laws post them still isnrsquot certain There is talk of tinkering with the long term capital gains tax and one is not sure what would actually happenIf for any reason the Finance Minister chooses to reintroduce the same one would be sure that March 2016 would see a blood bath the markets have not seen as yet In all rationality one would expect saner actions and not tinker with the markets when the economy is trying to recoverThe week ahead would be one of expectancy and therefore muted trading with investors waiting for the big announcement With hardly any expectations and therefore no buildup of positions the markets are likely to remain volatile and any positive or negative announcement is likely to move markets either way Trade with extreme cautionDisclaimer No financial information whatsoever published anywhere in this newspaper should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever All matter published here is for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading or making investment decisions Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions based on information published here Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at his or her risk