Coronavirus outbreak: Lockdown likely to be extended in Mumbai

Just a day after Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope said that Mumbai was at risk of a further spread of COVID19 hinting at a possible extension of the lockdown till May 18 senior IAS officer Manisha Mhaiskar posted on Facebook on Sunday saying the decision was likely Speaking in favour of the extension two otherIAS officers told midday containment was the only way outMhaiskar further mentions in her post that the number of cases in the city might go up to 70000 by midMay and that it was important to keep the doubling rate of cases static instead of allowing it to increase She further talks about herd immunity through her Facebook postPeople cross a police checkpost at Bhendi Bazar on SundayThe current doubling rate of Coronavirus in Mumbai is seven days and as per the assessment positive cases have doubled from 2120 on April 17 to 4232 on April 23 And if seven days are taken as the input assumption the modelling suggests that there would be around 70000 cases by the second half of May State and civic officials are trying to improve the doubling rate to eight nine or 10 days and are also working to ensure that the rate at which the cases are increasing goes down she said through her postShe further mentions that after this the next task is to establish COVID care centres for asymptomatic patients who are likely to be 8090 per cent of the above projections For those who need hospital care COVID beds are being augmented in both private and public sector hospitals For symptomatic patients or those with comorbidity a bed is the most precious resource and teams at Nair SevenHills Kasturba and HBT Trauma hospitals are working really hard towards patient care and bed augmentationA police officer checks a vehicle in South MumbaiHer post mentions Much is being said about herd immunity but dont get fooled or become careless or complacent Though estimates vary most experts agree that at least 8090 per cent of the population needs to be immune to the virus for herd immunity to develop In the absence of a vaccination implications of trying the herd immunity theory are both scary and disastrous The countries which thought of letting herd immunity develop in the early stages are now facing disastrous consequences at a very heavy human cost Thankfully neither India nor Maharashtra has ascribed to this theoryShe ended the post by saying My own personal assessment is that lockdown will probably have to be extended for Mumbai and even when its lifted we will do well to remember that the virus is still around there is no cure or vaccine and we are far from developing herd immunityLocals sanitise themselves by entering a disinfection tunnel at Jijamata Nagar in WorliSpeaking on condition of anonymity a senior BMC officer said With the rising number of cases there are chances that the lockdown in the city will be extended Even the health minister has hinted at a possible extension but we are preparing for the worst We are enhancing infrastructure to attend to more number of positive cases that might further increase in near future We are working on adding more beds and focusing on contact tracing and testing so that patients are identified at the earliest and are attended to We are also taking all possible measures to ensure that the total number of cases comes downAnother senior IAS officer said There are chances of an extension of the lockdown period considering the rate at which the numbers are going up It will help keep the numbers in check as containment is the only measure we can take in the current situation especially in a city like Mumbai However the final call is of the government but I do feel the extension is likely However a decision has to be taken on how many days the extension would be forManisha Mhaiskar IAS on FacebookMay 18Date health minister said the lockdown could be extended toCatch up on all the latest Mumbai news crime news current affairs and a complete guide from food to things to do and events across Mumbai Also download the new midday Android and iOS apps to get latest updates MidDay is now on Telegram Click here to join our channel middayinfomedialtd and stay updated with the latest news