<img title="Leaders of the saffron alliance seen during a seat-sharing meet at BJP leader and state education minister Vinod Tawde's official residence earlier this month " src="http://images.mid-day.com/images/images/2017/jan/29BJP-leader-1.jpg" alt="Leaders of the saffron alliance seen during a seat-sharing meet at BJP leader and state education minister Vinod Tawde's official residence earlier this month " /> Leaders of the saffron alliance seen during a seat-sharing meet at BJP leader and state education minister Vinod Tawde's official residence earlier this month
A 25-year-old coalition witnessed another round of bad weather this week when Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced that his party was opting out of the alliance with old friend BJP for the upcoming BMC elections.
While the Sena appears gung-ho about going solo, political analysts feel that the party did not calculate the risks involved. With BJP's prominence only increasing in Mumbai post the 2014 Assembly elections, this year's polls could either make or break the Sena, they said.
Rise of the 'other' saffron The BJP's unexpected rise to power first began in 2009, when, for the first time, it received a two-seat lead in the Assembly elections. The BJP won 46 seats, while the Sena got 44. In the 2014 state Assembly polls, the BJP struck gold with 122 seats, while the Sena managed to win only 63 seats. After having scripted this success story, the BJP has only become more assertive, Sena workers have alleged.
A leader from the Sena, on condition of anonymity, said, "The BJP has become more aggressive in the BMC. The party, which until recently was living in the shadow of the Sena, has now started targeting us and projecting us as the villain."
<img title="Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced the decision to call off the alliance with the BJP at a rally in Goregaon on Thursday" src="http://images.mid-day.com/images/images/2017/jan/29Uddhav-Thackeray-1.jpg" alt="Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced the decision to call off the alliance with the BJP at a rally in Goregaon on Thursday" /> Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced the decision to call off the alliance with the BJP at a rally in Goregaon on Thursday
These claims are not unfounded. Only recently, BJP MP Kirit Somaiya publicly accused the Sena of being the 'mafia and goonda raj' of the BMC. Somaiya had also targeted Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray's residence, calling it a den of corruption. BJP city unit president Ashish Shelar echoed his views. According to another Sena leader, the inquiry ordered in the nullah cleaning and road-repair work in the last two years, was a deliberate move to tarnish the Sena's image.
Failed talks The changing dynamics of the saffron alliance in the state put both the Sena and BJP on the offensive during the recent seat-sharing discussions for the BMC polls. The stakes were higher because it involved the country's richest civic body.
On January 16, the alliance held the first round of seat-sharing meetings. While the BJP demanded 114 seats, Sena was only willing to part with 60. At the time, the BJP had described the offer as "humiliating".
In the last week, both parties held at least four meetings to decide on the alliance. But, the discussions reached a stalemate and Thackeray went ahead and announced the break up.
"It's a crucial election for the Sena. The party will only be able to reclaim power in Mumbai if it manages to increase the number of seats in the BMC. It's a do or die situation for them," said a political commentator.
Break ke baad? For many, the saffron alliance's decision to split and fight the polls solo, appears to be a pre-decided move. "Both parties are trying the Kalyan Dombivli Municipal Corporation (KDMC) election plan. In KDMC, the BJP and Sena fought separately, but joined hands after the results were declared. By fighting separately, they successfully managed to keep away other parties like the Congress and NCP," said political analyst Prakash Bal Joshi.
He added, "In the 1999 Assembly polls, Congress and NCP had fought the election separately. It worked well for them as both the parties won maximum numbers of seats, and came back to power." Joshi added that Sena's decision to go solo is also part of its preparation plan for the 2019 Assembly elections. "Sena wants to test its strength so that it can prepare a plan for the next state Assembly elections," he said.
Change in strategy Feeling the heat of BJP's increasing presence in the state, the Sena has changed its election campaign and strategy. The party, which has always endorsed the 'sons of the soil' card, of late has tried to embrace other communities into its fold. Thackeray's speech on Thursday saw him reach out to Hindus, and not just the 'Marathi manoos'.
In the last month, several businessmen and people from the Gujarati community from areas like Borivli, Kandivli, Malad, Kalbadevi and Ghatkopar, have also joined the Sena. "Sena can't win the elections with the help of Marathi-speaking people alone. Both parties are trying to expand their vote base," Joshi said.
Hemraj Shah, president of Brihanmumbai Gujarati Samaj said he joined the Sena, because he was disappointed with the BJP's demonetisation policy. "It proved to be a major setback for the our business community. Shiv Sena has taken a stand and raised our issues with PM Narendra Modi," he said.
Sena gearing for a comeback Just before the BMC elections in 2007, Sena had suffered a major setback after two prominent leaders, Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray, quit the party. At the time, the party had also faced criticism for not creating enough infrastructure in the city, which led to the deluge in July 2005.
Considering the political debacles and citizens' growing outrage, political observers had written off the party. However, Sena proved its detractors wrong, and was once again declared the single largest party in the BMC. The Sena-BJP alliance came to power again in the 2012 elections.
According to political analysts, Sena's greatest strength is its root-level cadres, who have set-up several 'shakhas' (branches) across the city. The shakha workers understand the pulse of the citizens and this might benefit the Sena in the civic elections, an analyst said.

The Thackeray cub's move to fight the BMC polls solo has put Shiv Sena on the brink of another edgy contest. This time, the script demands a victory

Analysts feel Shiv Sena didn't calculate risks involved in going solo for BMC election

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Analysts feel Shiv Sena didn't calculate risks involved in going solo for BMC election

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