2014 is not 1998

With Priyanka Gandhi jumping out in the open into the Congress campaign programme feeble hopes have rekindled in the Grand Old Party She smiles waves hugs makes pithy remarks about Narendra Modi without naming him recalls her martyred father her family links with Amethi and Rae Bareli and then disappears for a dayTo return after a break But PGV as she is known in the Rahul Gandhi war room will not campaign beyond her mother and brotherrsquos constituencies Her speeches there are telecast live and has made a marginal impact in the mood of the Congress workers At least now it appears like somebody is fighting back the Modi wavePriyanka Gandhi Vadra during an election campaign for her mother Congress president Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli on Friday PicPTIAnd wave there is whether engineered or natural The momentum has been created for a 272 plus figure by May 16 and it is up to the Congress to break it not pretend it does not exist With 347 seats already polled there is not much time left to stem the BJP tide And that could only happen if the BJP gets complacent starts believing in all the hype that it has created about a lsquotsunamirsquoIf PGV is the Congress partyrsquos trump card then she has been pulled out too late and with a caveat that she is not going to campaign in other constituencies the impact has been blunted further The national campaigners for the Congress remain the motherson duo After two successful elections their magic has waned The two seem incapable of breaking the Modi machine which has its path charted outBut the Indian electorate has proved to be most unpredictable in every election since 1998 What if the NDA is not able to reach the magic figure of 272 The old guard in the Congress is depending on this slender possibility now It has started discussions on possible permutations and combinations with potential allies in order to cobble together a nonNDA unitThe old guard which has been sidelined in decision making by the RahulandPriyankaled war room are working out scenarios where they will be called in to open channels of communication with old regional allies The smaller partiesrsquo feedback is that the Modiwave is a media creation and inaccurate opinion polls findingsThe party is hoping that if NDA stops anywhere less than 230 then the Congress would be able to rally together smaller parties to form a lsquosecular frontrsquo to keep out the BJP rather Modi from power All eyes then will be on the president Pranab Mukherjee would certainly be aware that this is not 1998 and nobody in the country wants a repeat of that decadeIn the period from 19891998 we had eight prime ministers and ten governments The president will have to call the party with the largest number 272 And if the NDA with its 25 prepoll partners is unable to reach that number then it has a choice of either staking the claim and then going in for a confidence vote with more allies in its kitty or else allowing the probable lsquosecular frontrsquo to stake its claim and then pull it downThe old guard in the Congress has begun working on the possibilities that a hung parliament could throw up That is probably why months ago they forced the decision of not declaring Rahul Gandhi as a Prime Ministerial candidate for the campaign of 2014 It could be another Manmohan Singh like candidate acceptable to allies maybe even from the alliesrsquo parties This kind of a scheme fuels fears of policy paralysis due to political instability that might ensueA coalition of lsquolikeminded partiesrsquo whose single point agenda is to keep the BJP out of power will bring forth a backlash from the Modibhakts who have already started making a shadow cabinet The Camelot of their dreams has begun taking shape in the karyakarta offices all across the country The energy in the BJP offices is unmatched The disappointment if it does come will also be unmatchedThe sane minds in the party have kept that small window open for post poll alliances in the event of a non 272 structure That is why the manifesto has put in the back burner issues such as Ayodhya and article 370 The BJPNDA know how to win allies despite its sharp poll rhetoric A lot of the mudslinging one is witnessing these days seems to be part of a fixed match with regional playersSmita Prakash is Editor News at Asian News International You can follow her on twitter smitaprakash