5 reasons why the grand alliance won Bihar

Five factors ndash the sway of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar high voter turnout vote swing against the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP declining vote share of the BJP and talks of reservation and Pakistan by the BJP leaders ndash ensured a sweeping victory for the Mahagathbandhan Grand Alliance in BiharThe alliance ndash including the Janata Dal U the Rashtriya Janata Dal RJD and the Congress ndash trounced the BJPled National Democratic Alliance NDA by winning 178 out of the 243 Bihar assembly seats for which results were announced todayThe social base provided by the RJD and the Congress along with development in the last decade went in favour of the Nitish Kumarled MahagathbandhanldquoThe nation has chosen an alternative path for developmentrdquo Sharad Yadav president of JD U said while talking to NDTV Out of all the exit polls only one by Lalu Prasad himself was the closest he had predicted 190 ldquoThe victory of Grand Alliance will change the course of national politicsrdquo RJD leader Lalu Prasad saidThe JD U had contested 141 seats in 2010 and won 115 while the BJP had contested 102 seats and won 91 seatsThe NDA in Bihar split following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP in 2013 The split ended a 17year old alliance between the BJP and the JD U The JD U was the biggest ally to quit the NDA other big allies like the Shiv Sena the Telugu Desam Party TDP and the Shiromani Akali Dal SAD continued with the NDA While the opposition to NDA was negligible in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls Nitish Kumar was and still remains the most vocal opponent of Narendra Modi The political realignment in Bihar saw erstwhile foes Lalu Prasadrsquos RJD the Congress and the JD U form the Mahagathbandhan which swept the polls Factor 1 Nitish Sway Nitish Niti HoldsldquoVipaksh ka sammaan karenge majaak nahin udayengerdquo We will not disrespect the opposition in any mannerrdquo said Nitish Kumar who is expected to be the Chief Minister for the third time while addressing the media today Bihar is one of the few states that have not seen a Congress Chief Minister for more than 25 years Regional leaders and regional politics have always been the prime mover in Bihar which is among the poorest of Indian states The Grand Alliance was formed as a united opposition against the BJP which now enjoys a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha lower house of the Parliament while ruling or sharing power in 11 states The BJP is already in power in three states of the Hindi heartland ndash Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Nitish Kumar in the last decade or so has become the face of changing Bihar The development in Bihar was propelled by growth in construction communication trade and hospitality and the banking and finance industry according to Economic Survey of Bihar 201415 The Nitishled coalition matched the progress in economy with equal focus on social sectors ndash women empowerment and child development The government led by Nitish Kumar in the last decade also implemented 50reservations for women in panchayats against 33 previously in village councils and reservations for the post of Mukhiya head of the village council The flagship Mukhyamantri Gram SadakYojana Chief Ministerrsquos Rural Road Development Scheme and Manav Vikas Mission 20132017 were launched to ensure economic growth as well as improving social sectors Factor 2 Voter turnoutThe people of Bihar ticked up a new record for turnout in this assembly election It surpassed the 2014 Lok Sabha election which was considered a waveHigh voter turnout which crossed 60 only in three earlier elections ensured a victory for Grand Alliance Thus it was a repeat of history as the RJD won the past three times voting crossed 60 when Mandal Commission was applied OBC reservations were in place and Jharkhand was yet to be carved outVoter turnout reduced consistently after the ouster of Lalu Prasad from power Nitish Kumar an opponent of Lalu Prasad strategically teamed up with the BJP and became the Railway Minister in the Vajpayee cabinet twice ndash 199899 and 200204 Since then he has reinvented himself as a ldquocleanrdquo leader with a mixed support base unlike Lalu Prasad who has received consistent support from Muslims and Yadavs 31 of electorate With electoral support from the BJP and sparkling administration that showed results in infrastructure and per capita income Nitish Kumar consolidated a firm ruralplusurban multindashclass multindashcaste voter base He became the face of Biharrsquos development and the electorate reciprocated it with a decisive vote Factor 3 Role of Swinging Vote Share Facing the BJP juggernaut independently in the Lok Sabha elections the JDU on one hand and the RJD Congress on the other garnered 45 vote share but won only nine out of 40 seats NDA on the other hand got only 39 of total votes but won 30 seats The present Grand Alliance garnered 42 vote share in the 2015 assembly election and won 178 seats The NDA won only 58 seats with a 343 vote shareThe three major parties of Grand Alliance recorded a low sharetoseat multiplier in the Lok Sabha 2014 election as explained in IndiaSpendrsquos earlier articleThe RJD won 22 seats with 19 vote share in the 2010 assembly election and won four parliamentary seats with 20 votes in 2014 The JD U which won 115 seats with 22 votes in 2010 won just two seats with 16 vote share in 2014 In the 2014 general election the Grand Alliance won just nine out of 40 seats The combined share of three parties skewed the seatshare logic this time the grand alliance actually managed to get past the post than NDA candidates in the right number of seats As explained in an earlier article the same voting pattern did hold true for the assembly election which had given the Mahagathbandhan if it had been devised lead in 145 assembly segments in Lok Sabha 2014 The BJP had won a full majority in Lok Sabha with 31 vote share panIndia but NDA failed to win a majority with an increased vote share of 34 Grand Alliance In PowerThe last two terms of Bihar assembly were ruled by the BJPJDU combine That combined vote share has certainly swung towards the Grand Alliance The coming together of top two politicians of the state ndash one with a history of Mandal politics while the other who transgressed and created postndashMandal development politics ndash and the Congress has won rich electoral dividends Election observersresearchers feel that the accord between the candidates of constituent parties and fewer instances of rebellion proved instrumental in Grand Alliancersquos victory The traditional RJD voters ndash Muslim Yadav MY communities ndash played key roles in reestablishing Nitish Kumar in power Factor 4 Declining vote share of BJPThe vote share of the BJP in states increased in the runup to the Lok Sabha elections 2013 to 2014 The party secured handsome vote share in the assembly polls in states in 2013 ndash namely Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and formed governments there On the one hand the BJP secured higher vote share in the same states in the subsequent Lok Sabha electionOn the other hand the vote share of the BJP has been declining in assembly elections after the Lok Sabha elections In all the states except Maharashtra the vote share of the BJP has declined in the subsequent assembly elections In Maharashtra the support from Shiv Sena was inevitable for the BJP In Jharkhand the BJP rules a minority government while in Jammu and Kashmir they could not surpass the regional party PDP Getting into power in Jammu and Kashmir was a big achievement for the BJP but it had to settle as a smaller partner in the ruling coalition courtesy the lower vote share Bihar was yet another assembly election after the Lok Sabha polls and the BJPrsquos vote share has reduced The vote share of 30 in 2014 Lok Sabha polls reduced to less than 25 in 2015 and the party received a blow winning just 53 seats Factor 5 Reservation Pakistan talk went against BJPApart from numerical factors and electoral statistics sociological and psychological undercurrents played critical roles in the Bihar elections The Bihar campaign started with rants of reversing other backward class OBC reservation from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh RSS The communal incident in Dadri Uttar Pradesh of lynching a person over suspicion of carrying beef raised the issue of gross intolerance Prime Minister and the BJP star campaigner in Bihar Narendra Modi rather than assuaging the communal tensions around it created a new controversy by invoking Pakistan in the middle of the campaign The LaluNitish combine was deft enough to convince people about the ills of such rhetoric in action and the people obliged And obliged powerfullyStory courtesy wwwindiaspendcom The Mahagathbandhan excelled in engaging directly with people Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad deciding not to contest the election travelled to almost every constituency in the state with both of them crossing the mark of 200 rallies according to reports While the NDA combined grand rallies of Prime Minister Modi with local rallies by Ram Vilas Paswan Jiten Ram Manjhi BJP leader Sushil Modi and Amit Shah the Grand Alliance focused only on local rallies by the two leadersRallies Addressed By Leaders From Across PartiesWaghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend