Aditya Sinha: Nitish is a long way from endgame

Do not rule out another volteface by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar at some strategic moment in the future PicPTIMany believe that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumars joining up with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and forming a new state government after ditching Lalu Prasads Mahagathbandhan ensures a 2019 parliamentary poll victory for the NDA Im not so sure One the election is 22 months away an eon in politics Dont forget that for the last NDA government headed by AB Vajpayee things began to unravel 12 to 14 months before the End And while it is easy to praise Modi and BJP chief Amit Shahs strategy planning and execution hubris and the BJP are old acquaintancesTwo never underestimate Nitish Today many uppercaste Biharis and middleclass urbanIndia Modi fans love him while he is a traitor in the Oppositions eyes It is no doubt difficult not to think of Nitish as a political opportunist However look at last weeks twists and turns in the worlds other big democracy America where the Republican Party tried to overturn Barack Obamas healthcare laws as it had been promising for the past seven years The rightwing could not agree on how to repeal Obamacare and their replacement bill failed to come to the legislature floor again and again Former presidential candidate Senator John McCain got up from an operation on a cancerous blood clot in his brain and voted to bring a lighter version of the bill to the Senate floor Republicans called him a hero the media called him a turncoat and traitor sound familiar who had endgamed himself The bill was defeated by a single vote ironically cast by McCain himself and because he brought it to the floor a new Bill cant come till the next fiscal year McCain played a masterstroke and exacted a quiet revenge on President Donald Trump who on the campaign trail cavalierly insulted McCains capture and imprisonment in VietnamNitish is not McCain and Modi is not the dolt that Trump is But Nitishs longevity as CM has the feature that he always managed to keep the positive spotlight on himself cycles for girls filling up vacancies for teachers in government schools prohibition and he has always manoeuvred the negative spotlight onto others mdash be it Modi or Lalu The negative spotlight has never been on Nitish and I doubt that he will let it fall on him during the three years till the next Bihar Assembly election despite Modis best efforts If you go by what commentators are saying Nitish plays a long game So while they may say this dumping of Mahagathbandhan and joining the NDA was Nitishs endgame Amit Shah will work towards ultimately installing a BJP CM in Patna and Nitish can never hope to be PM or President both posts intended by the NDA for RSS men As hes an ambitious man he would have foreseen this set of outcomes so do not rule out another volteface by Nitish at some strategic moment in the futureThree abuse is being heaped upon Congress vicepresident Rahul Gandhi with some saying that the July 22 RahulNitish meeting was the reason Nitish dumped the Mahagathbandhan that Rahuls lack of drive clarity or roadmap forced Nitish to choose a more secure future with the NDA It might be so I dont know I wasnt at the meeting What seems likely is that the Congress party will likely be better focused in the next one year whatever Rahuls personal strengths or flaws This is thanks to the BJP which has destroyed the natural constituencies of OBCs and Dalits in both UP and Bihar and none of the leaders mdash Akhilesh Yadav Mayawati or Lalu Prasad mdash has shown the imagination to counter the BJPs efforts Disgruntled postMandal voters could well return to their original party the Congress provided the party gives them a reason toFor instance if the BJP hawks nationalism as its electoral sales pitch then the Congress can take a leaf from its Karnataka chief minister and pitch subnationalism as its brand something that can evolve as both a postMandal and a postkamandal ideologyFour any message depends heavily on the messenger Former Maharashtra CM Prithviraj Chavan felt the Opposition had no one of Modis stature and he was correct For the moment The Congress does have someone who can like Modi of 2013 storm the country whip the party and the Opposition into shape and scare the pants off Amit Shah I dont have to mention her name Suffice it to say the BJP loves having Rahul in charge of the Congress and the Opposition That is hubris It prevents the 2019 poll from becoming a certain NDA victory no matter how debilitated the Opposition might right now seem Ill bet Nitish has silently kept one last card up his sleeve to be deployed when the moment is just rightAditya Sinhas crime novel The CEO Who Lost His Head is available now He tweets autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom