Aditya Sinha: Politics in the Wild Wild East

I visited Assam to welcome 2016 and write my best books column but instead found a muddy dirty battle underway that was unmissable A former state minister named Nilamani Sen Deka bade 2015 a farewell by publicly calling Human Resources Development Minister Smriti Irani Prime Minister Narendra Modirsquos ldquosecond wiferdquo Naturally the state units of the BJP and the Congress brawled on Guwahatirsquos streets I tossed aside the books columnBJP members are felicitated on January 7 after being released on bail from jail for leading attacking Congressmen at the party headquarters Rajiv Bhawan on December 28 PicPTIOf course trashy gossip like Nilamanirsquos ought to be outrightly condemned not just because itrsquos stale but because it does nothing to dislodge an antiintellectual knownothing like Ms Irani from a crucial ministry Local newspapers and TV channels were outraged some vapidly tuttutting that it was against Assamese culture Speaking of which the hyperpitch breathless commentary on Assamese TV news explains everything about Assamrsquos most famous son Arnab One channel repeatedly showed Nilamani laughing his shoulders shaking prompting my fatherinlaw to say that Nilamani resembled a monkeyHowever there is no doubt a method to Nilamanirsquos madnessNilamani is a close aide to chief minister Tarun Gogoi who has been CM for 15 long and painful years of nongovernance and apathy He is lately given to utterances such as ldquoI may be old but my blood is youngrdquo and ldquoIf BJP has Hema Malini we too have beautiful ministersrdquo all the while maintaining a zenlike inscrutability that makes voters wonder if it isnrsquot time he retired Gogoi welcomed 2016 by calling the BJP a ldquoparty of killersrdquo so he is far from politically senileNormally an incumbent like Gogoi would have zero chance of retaining power in the next Assembly election which along with polls in Tamil Nadu West Bengal and Kerala is due after April 14 Bihu but before May 24 when the TN assemblyrsquos term is over Though Assam has the least Lok Sabha seats 14 it will be the mostwatched simply because it is 2016rsquos only Congress vs BJP matchup The two national parties figure nowhere in the other states Congress may get dislodged from Kerala and so Assam is a doordie battle for themAssam ought to have been a cakewalk for the BJP but things havenrsquot gone well so far First the BJPrsquos image has been tarnished by the induction of exCongressman Himanta Biswa Sarma and his gang of rowdies It distresses BJP supporters no end because Himanta is a bully and is implicated in corruption cases Also he fancies himself as a future BJP CM and his gang is bulldozing the state unit much to the chagrin of central minister Sarbananda Sonowal and local MP Bijoya Chakravarty Trouble ahoyThe ldquosecond wiferdquo remark led Himanta et al to attack the local Congress party headquarters and 20 Congressmen were hurt Himanta then fled to Bangladesh not the favourite country of BJPrsquos Assamese supporters and dared Gogoi to arrest him upon his return Gogoi ignored him Ironically Himanta had been Gogoirsquos number two and would have been the successor now the Congress has no choice but to stick with a nearcomatose CMSecond the PMrsquos policies visagravevis Bangladesh mdash the exchange of enclaves the citizenship to Bangladeshi Hindus mdash have not gone down well in Assam where the issue isnrsquot HinduMuslim even the 2012 Bodoland rioting was tribalMuslim but of foreigners inundating the Brahmaputra valley The Assamese canrsquot reconcile the BJP pandering to BangladeshisThird inflation has not abated and the pricerise is blamed on ModiAnd fourth the demographics of Assam mdash whose border districtsrsquo population has helped the rise of a proMuslim party led by ittar king Badruddin Ajmal mdash prevent the BJP from winning an outright majority of seatsThis means the BJP trying to turn the tide after Delhi and Bihar will have no choice but to deploy Modi heavily during the election mdash he still has charisma unlike the rest of his party mdash even if it does project a CM candidate in AssamGiven that Modi will again be at the forefront the other side will naturally try to tarnish his image After all personal attacks on his proxy Arun Jaitley worked in Delhi and during the Bihar elections after Modi illadvisedly taunted Lalu Prasadrsquos daughter Misa she pointed out that he had deserted his wife Modi has no right to complain given the fact that he has a history of making vulgar personal attacksFinally the Congress has hired Prashant Kishore the strategist behind Modirsquos 2014 Lok Sabha win and Nitishrsquos 2015 Bihar win Kishore is also a soninlaw of Assam Though he doesnrsquot have much material to work with given Gogoirsquos blinding charisma hersquos already plastered Guwahati with posters that say in Asomiya ldquo15 years of vishwaas 15 years of vikaasrdquoThus begins a fullthroated noholdsbarred election battle of the year For those who relish a street brawl this one promises to 2016rsquos muddiest and murkiestJournalist and writer Aditya Sinha is the coauthor of Kashmir The Vajpayee Years He tweets autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom