Ajit Pawar’s death will spark leadership crisis in Maharashtra NCP: Political analysts

Ajit Pawar’s death has left the Maharashtra NCP without a clear leader, raising uncertainty over the party’s future and the loyalty of its 41 MLAs. Recent municipal and civic election results highlight the significance of his grassroots influence, which will be difficult for other leaders to match

NCP's future at stake after Ajit Pawar's death: Political analysts

Ajit Pawar’s passing raises questions on NCP's future. File Pic

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NCP's future at stake after Ajit Pawar's death: Political analysts

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The tragic and untimely demise of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash on Wednesday has not only left a vacuum in the BJP-led state coalition government, but also cast a shadow on the future of the NCP. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is likely to face a leadership crisis following Ajit Pawar's death, as there is no clear second-in-command, say political observers.

As the 'clock' symbol lost its undisputed leader, questions loomed over the party's survival and its future equation with founder Sharad Pawar, whose Rajya Sabha tenure ends in April this year. There has been speculation whether the NCP might reunite with the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP), especially as ties between the factions have softened in recent months.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis will need to ensure that the 41 MLAs aligned with Ajit Pawar do not drift back toward Sharad Pawar, political analysts say. Ajit Pawar's wife, Sunetra, is currently a Rajya Sabha member and has been politically active, though she lacks administrative experience. The NCP has one Lok Sabha member, Sunil Tatkare, and two Rajya Sabha MPs - Praful Patel and Sunetra Pawar.

With NCP founder Sharad Pawar staying away from the public glare during the recently held local bodies and civic elections, his daughter and NCP (SP) working president, Supriya Sule, campaigned for the party candidates, but was no match for her cousin Ajit Pawar, who campaigned statewide. State politics was abuzz with speculation about a possible merger of NCP (SP) with the NCP under Ajit Pawar's leadership. However, his untimely death in a plane crash has cast uncertainty over the future of his faction.

Apart from state NCP president Sunil Tatkare and national working president Praful Patel, the party lacks a senior leader capable of succeeding Ajit Pawar. The only other mass-based leader, Chhagan Bhujbal-recently acquitted in a money laundering case-is currently unwell. While Patel and Tatkare have been key organisational figures, they lack the statewide grassroots connect that Ajit Pawar commanded.

In the ruling Mahayuti, which won a massive mandate in the 2024 assembly polls, the BJP has 132 MLAs, followed by Eknath Shinde- led Shiv Sena with 57 and Pawar's NCP 41.

Senior journalist Prakash Akolkar told PTI that both NCP factions are contesting the February 5 Zilla Parishad elections together on the 'clock' symbol, effectively signalling an unofficial merger. "The question is no longer about who merges with whom. With only two Opposition parties left-Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT)-it remains to be seen whether the Congress can revive itself," he said.

In the recently-concluded civic polls in Maharashtra, the NCP, which contested separately from Mahayuti allies, bagged 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations and was defeated by the BJP on its home ground of Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, where it had aligned with Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP), which won only 36 seats across the state.

In the 165-member Pune Municipal Corporation, the NCP won only 27 seats and NCP (SP) 3 seats against BJP's tally of 119, whereas in the 102-member Pimpri Chinchwad civic body, Ajit Pawar's party got 37 and Sharad Pawar's faction drew a blank, while BJP got 84 seats.

Last month, in the polls to 246 municipal councils and 42 nagar panchayats, the NCP won 966 and NCP (SP) 256 out of the total 6,851 seats.

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