Undercover agents have gathered information that suggests the UPA may find it tough to put together a government in Delhi

A central investigative bureau is predicting that the BJP will win a majority of seats in Karnataka, and the Congress will have a tough time stitching together a government at the centre.

Will they succeed? BJP workers take out a protest rally againstu00a0 the Congressu00a0 file pic

The bureau forecasts that the BJP will bag 14 or 15 of the 28 seats in Karnataka, the JD(S) three or four, and the Congress, at its very best, may touch eight or nine.

The bureau says the Congress will have a tough time as the NDA is witnessing a rise in popularity.

The anti-incumbency factor and the grassroots mobilisation of the Third Front could also make life tough for the UPA, the report suggests.

The agency believes its predictions will turn out more reliable than those conducted by the media and the NGOs.

'Not our job'

Internal security rather than poll forecasting is the priority for the agency, but it does put together reports that make predictions.

The analysis is prepared by senior investigators, with the help of past statistics and inputs from political leaders.

The agency is entrusted with the duty of containing political unrest and maintaining law and order.

Secret network

In the course of their work, sleuths end up with information related to the political future of the country. They send them to senior officials who analyse and prepare a report.

But the bureau faces the charge of helping the ruling party with its snooping skills.

A senior policeman recalled that Indira Gandhi as prime minister used to depend on the bureau so much that she would even ask them about the prospects of aspirants before issuing election tickets.

"Our words are not heeded all the time," he said. "Despite our warning, Rahul Gandhi used Krishna Byre Gowda's vehicle instead of going in the recommended bullet-proof vehicle."

He said the public event went off smoothly, but could have got the agency in trouble had something untoward occurred.

"God forbid, but if something were to have gone wrong, we would have been blamed," he told MiD DAY.

On the other hand, he said, no one has a word of appreciation for the agency if political events go off smoothly.

Senior police officers in Karnataka are saying the intelligence report could be more authentic than other surveys.

So what do the experts have to say?u00a0

Sandeep Shastri, political analyst
When the Congress began its campaign it was assumed it would have great chances ahead. However while the campaign caught on, the Congress weakened its position in every phase of the election. I think non-Congress and non-BJP leaders will play a decisive role in forming the central government.