IMD forecasts cyclonic storm over Bay of Bengal, Andhra and Odisha coasts on watch

The India Meteorological Department IMD has forecast that a lowpressure area over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal could intensify into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26 2026 and move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the following two days a weather alert said on FridayAccording to the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre RSMC for Tropical Cyclones the lowpressure area formed over the eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal following an upperair cyclonic circulationThe system is expected to intensify gradually becoming a depression on October 24 and a deep depression on October 25 before developing into a cyclonic storm on October 26Bay of Bengal system likely to intensifyThe IMDs tropical weather outlook issued for October 23 places the system over the eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal At 0300 UTC on Friday its estimated central pressure was 1010 hectopascals hPa with maximum sustained winds of 10 knots and gusts of up to 20 knotsSatellite imagery from INSAT3DS showed scattered to broken low and mediumlevel clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over the system and the Andaman IslandsThe forecast indicates that the system is likely to remain over the same region on October 24 and intensify into a depression It is then very likely to move westnorthwestwards and strengthen into a deep depression on October 25By the morning of October 26 the system is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the westcentral Bay of BengalAndhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts in forecast trackAfter developing into a cyclonic storm the system is projected to continue moving westnorthwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the subsequent two daysSeveral global and regional weather models show strong agreement on the systems development and its projected movement towards the two coastal regionsThe models indicate a possible peak intensity ranging from 45 knots to 80 knots The IMD has assessed confidence in the systems current location and intensity as well as its forecast track and intensity as moderate to highThe systems projected development and movement remain subject to further monitoring and updates from the weather departmentWarm sea conditions favour cyclone developmentThe IMD outlook identifies several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that could support the systems intensificationSea surface temperatures over the eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal are around 30 degrees Celsius while temperatures along Indias east coast are approximately 29 degrees CelsiusThe system is also supported by positive lowlevel vorticity and moderate vertical wind shear of 10ndash15 knotsThe MaddenJulian Oscillation MJO an atmospheric pattern associated with tropical rainfall and convection is currently in Phase 3 with an amplitude close to one Its amplitude is expected to exceed one from October 24 potentially favouring further convection and cyclogenesis over the Bay of BengalWesterly wind anomalies along with equatorial Rossby waves over the south and central Bay of Bengal are also contributing to conditions favourable for the systems developmentOther weather systems over Arabian SeaThe IMD has also reported changes in weather systems over the Arabian SeaA lowpressure system that was previously over the Comorin area and south Tamil Nadu has shifted over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep Its associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 58 km above mean sea level with intense convection affecting Kerala Tamil Nadu and the Lakshadweep IslandsMeanwhile the system along the Somalia coast over the southwest Arabian Sea had become less marked by 0300 UTC on October 23 However lowlevel circulation and moderate to intense convection continue over the Somalia coast and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea