New Delhi: Monsoon rainfall in India this year is likely to be below average and there is a 60 percent chance that El Nino will affect farm output and economic growth, the weather office said Thursday.

Average rainfall during the 2014 monsoon season (June to September) across the country is likely to be 88 percent with a margin for error of plus or minus five percent, according to data released by the India Meteorological Department and Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO).