Japan's rise is good for India

In the past week the ShangriLa Dialogue in Singapore and the AsiaPacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur have focused on the future geopolitics of the Asia PacificNot surprisingly the key discussions have centered on the rising tensions between Asiarsquos hasbeen power Japan and rising power China This is a rivalry poisoned by history and it is threatening the peace of a region which is the engine of the worldrsquos economic growthIn the past five years China has been flexing its muscles in the South and East China Seas raising the hackles of its neighbours Not only is Beijing undertaking a massive military build up but the Communist Party of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping is taking an active role in promoting a proactive national security postureJapanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that when Indian PM Narendra Modi visits Japan the two sides will work to make the JapanIndia cooperation peaceful and prosperous PicAFPA consequence of this has been the US decision to lsquorebalancersquo itself towards Asia to reassure key allies like South Korea Japan and the Philippines But perhaps more dramatic and in its own way worrisome has been the lsquoreturnrsquo of Japan to the highstakes tableThis has been evident in the platform of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe the foundations of whose policy is an economic revival of Japan based on the lsquothree arrowsrsquo of Abenomics A bold monetary policy with a view of easing monetary conditions to encourage an inflation rate of 2 per cent a flexible fiscal policy which includes an economic stimulus package and fiscal consolidation and finally a growth strategy dependent on promoting private investment targeting new markets and working out new trade agreements including the TransPacific PartnershipEqually significant has been Japanrsquos new diplomacy which has sought to first and foremost strengthen the USJapan alliance A subset of this is the push to work out a modus vivendi with South Korea which retains historical suspicions of JapanThe second pillar of Japanese diplomacy involves promoting links with the ASEAN Australia and India The third is to deepen ties with EU and Russia and finally take a more active role in global issues such as climate change millennium development goals etcBut the most dramatic changes are likely to show up in Tokyorsquos security policy which is based on deep reform of its security infrastructure In December 2013 Japan set up a National Security Council and within weeks came up with a new National Security Strategy which sees Japan as a lsquoproactive contributor to peace based on the principle of international cooperationrsquoThis means redefining what selfdefence is all about and enhancing the Japanese contribution to it through stronger ties with the US strengthening the Japanese military and sharpening its technological edge The Abe government wants to reinterpret selfdefence to mean the ability of Japanese forces to come to the aid of allies even if Japan itself is not attacked This is opposed by China South Korea and by some in JapanThey are afraid that it could put Japan back on the path of militarisation that led to the catastrophe of World War II India has been the beneficiary of ChinaJapan tensions Prior to the antiJapanese demonstrations in China in 2005 Tokyo largely ignored New Delhi China was the foremost recipient of Japanese Overseas Development Assistance ODA in the 1980 and 1990s By 2000 Japan had provided China with some 25 billion in soft loans and grants which went a long way in developing Chinarsquos infrastructure In the 19582000 period Japanrsquos ODA to India was around 7 billionSince then India has become its largest recipient for successive years and since 2000 it has got some 30 billion worth of ODA In addition Japanrsquos private sector long leery of India has begun hedging its Chinese bets by investing in India Among the Japanese projects are longrange ones like the DelhiMumbai freight corridor along which there are plans to build new cities and economic zonesIndia could also benefit from Tokyorsquos shifting stance on exports relating to defence equipment In April Japan tweaked its export policy by coming up with a new set of lsquoThree Principlesrsquo on defence equipment transfer But already it has offered New Delhi the ShinMaywa US 2 amphibian aircraft for use by the Coast Guard and other nonmilitary agenciesThe rise if you want to call it that of another Asian power on the flanks of China one which also has difficulties with Beijing is to Indiarsquos advantage New Delhi is not unaware of the geopolitical benefits For this reason Abe was the chief guest at the Republic Day parade this year India and Japan began bilateral naval exercises in 2012 and during the Abe visit it was announced that Japan would join this yearrsquos Malabar Exercise involving India and the US againIn his speech at the ShangriLa dialogue Abe had hailed Modirsquos election as Prime Minister and said that when the Indian PM visited Japan the two sides would confirm that ldquoJapanIndia cooperation as well as trilateral cooperation including our two countries will make the lsquoconfluence of the two seasrsquo that is the Pacific and Indian Oceans peaceful and more prosperousrdquo These are public declarations deliberately couched in generalities but containing within a host of geopolitical possibilitiesThe writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation New Delhi