Rally and tally

The markets continued to rally in the week gone by and were at their best in the last half hour on Thursday when the April futures expired The fact that the sharp rally in half an hour looked unsustainable was borne out when markets fell on the last day of the week on Friday Police escort arrested Chairman of Saradha group Sudipta Sen 2R from a police van to the court Police said on April 23 2013 they had arrested the head of a privately run Indian savings company that collapsed leaving tens of thousands of its investors penniless Police in the West Bengal state capital Kolkata said Saradha group chairman Sudipta Sen and two of his business associates were taken into custody in the northern Indian state of Kashmir where they had fled The collapse last month of the socalled chit fund which offered returns of 40 percent and more has triggered massive street protests in eastern India and three investors have committed suicide The markets ended positive with the BSE SENSEX gaining 27026 points or 142 per cent to close at 1928672 points The NSE NIFTY gained 8835 points or 153 per cent to close at 587145 points The broader indices gained similar with the BSE100 BSE200 and BSE500 gaining 138 per cent 138 per cent and 131 per cent respectively The BSEMIDCAP and SMALLCAP gained much less at 092 per cent and 081 per cent respectively Airways The BSE AUTO was the top gainer up 411 per cent Other gainers included BSE CAP up 316 per cent BSE CON up 248 per cent and BSE HEALTH up 210 per cent BSE IT continued to be a loser down 483 per cent while BSE REALTY was marginally down at 019 per cent In individual stocks Jet Airways was the top gainer up 1970 per cent after the deal with Etihad Airways where they would acquire a 24 per cent stake for Rs 2060 crore A customer seen reflected in a mirror inspects a gold necklace at a jewellery shop in Hyderabad on April 26 2013 Gold prices clawed back some losses April 16 after suffering their heaviest slump in 30 years triggered by weak Chinese growth data and reports Cyprus was planning to sell part of its reserves Demand for gold is expected to pick up during the upcoming wedding season PicsAFP Maruti Suzuki gained 963 per cent after posting excellent results for the year which saw its net profit rise to Rs 246929 crore against Rs 168109 crore in the previous year Other gainers included Coal India up 663 per cent Hero Moto up 625 per cent and Bharti Airtel up 622 per cent The losers were led by the IT companies where Wipro lost 1046 per cent and TCS lost 569 per cent The other notable loser was ONGC down 305 Metal This week has a trading holiday midweek on Wednesday on account of Labour Day and also Maharashtra day Friday May 3 sees RBI announcing its mid quarter review where it is widely expected that there would be a 25 basis points cut in repo rates If nothing more than this happens the markets would correct as the expectation last Thursday looking at the rally in the market talks of a 50 basis points had begun to do the rounds Gold and silver prices have rebounded of their lows and the Indian Rupee has depreciated to Rs 5438 FIIs were net investors in shares of Rs 3046 crore while domestic institutions were net sellers of Rs 2106 crore The April series expired at 591630 points a gain of 23375 points or 411 per cent The Indian monsoon is expected to be normal and 98 per cent of the long term average rainfall is expected which if it does happen would be real good news for agriculture Issue There is an IPO from Scotts Garments Limited which is currently on and closes on Monday April 29 The company is raising around Rs 137 crore in a price band of Rs 130132 The company is a manufacturer of readymade garments and is offering its shares at a valuation of roughly 145 times its seven months earnings on an annualised basis discounted for the dilution in equity The issue considering the fact that the company is a garment manufacturer and not a retailer does not leave anything for the investor in terms of upside Politics The political scene is not too conducive for the markets and may turn out to be the joker in the pack The JPC Chairman on 2G is involved in a fracas with his committee members and the coal scam being investigated is involved in a different issue with the Supreme Court The court would take up the matter on April 30 and both these issues would keep Parliament from nonfunctioning in the days to come No work has been done in the session which began a week ago and is likely to continue to remain the same Key bills like the food security and land acquisition bills are due for discussion which are key focus areas of the ruling UPA Negative The markets would look forward to directions from RBI for direction Unless the cut is more than 25 basis points expect the markets to trade with a negative bias Key levels for the SENSEX are 19050 and 19725 while similar levels for the NIFTY are 5750 and 5950 respectively The BSE SENSEX has support at 19209 points then at 19094 points then at 18989 points then at 18756 points and finally at 18669 points It has resistance at 19364 points then at 19485 points then at 19612 points then at 19742 points and finally at 19929 points The NSE NIFTY has support at 5852 points then at 5805 points then at 5754 points then at 5705 points and finally at 5664 points It has resistance at 5898 points then at 5935 points then at 5971 points then at 6024 points and finally at 6068 points Arun Kejriwal is founder of the Mumbaibased advisory firm Kejriwal Research amp Investment Services Pvt Ltd Readers are invited to read more about these and other issues on his website httpak57in Disclaimer No financial information whatsoever published anywhere in this newspaper should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever All matter published here is for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading or making investment decisions Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions based on information published here Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at his or her risku00a0