The unending turmoil in Egypt

The Egyptian crisis extends beyond Egypt and Egyptians in the complicated Middle East It is not even merely about the deeply entrenched Egyptian military versus the Muslim Brotherhood There are conflicted US economic and strategic interests in the region and an assertion of Saudi Arabian interests Ever since the US dumped Hosni Mubarak in 2011 Saudi and Gulf monarchies have feared regime instability following the success of Muslim Brotherhoodrsquos political Islam in overturning existing systems There is sectarian conflict in Iraq and increasingly in Syria with the involvement of the Al Qaeda creed The world generally overlooks the fate of the Kurds who live across four countries Resentment A protester holds up a poster of Egyptrsquos ousted president Mohamed Morsi during a protest in front of Saudi Arabiarsquos embassy in Paris PicAFP The July coup by Gen AlSisi had received assurances in advance from the Saudis and UAE of assistance worth US 6 billion to offset any cut off by the Americans This was tantamount to challenging decadesrsquo old US preeminence in Egypt and also brought the 68year old US Saudi security arrangement under some stress The latest outburst by King Abdullah accusing the US without naming of ldquoignorancerdquo about Egypt and ldquointerferencerdquo in the Arab world is a new low in SaudiUS relations The financial guarantee from Arab monarchies also deflated US pressure on Egypt that IMF conditions would have to be met for additional financial assistance There were suspicions of contacts between Morsirsquos Brotherhood with the Iranian Ayatollahs and there have been fresh allegations about the Brotherhoodrsquos plans to resort to terrorism No wonder then that the global response to the bloodletting by the Egyptian military as it removed President Morsi has been mixed barring condemnation in the Muslim world The US has to deal with its global interests conflicting with interests of the regional powers Qatar the home to the US Centcomrsquos Forward Base and to US efforts to strike a deal with the Taliban had initially supported Morsi pouring in billions of dollars in Egypt Syria and Gaza However the kingdom abruptly changed policy in July the day Saudi Arabia decided to support the military coup in Egypt The Qataris were thus acknowledging that when it was a question of regime survival the Saudis were the bosses The US is caught in its own dichotomies of having to talk to the Taliban without militarily defeating them of fighting against Bashar Assad in Syria on the same side as Al Nusra the Al Qaeda franchisee in Syria or inability to prevent the sectarian civil war in Iraq It still does not have an answer to the rising power of Iran nor the ability to adequately assure its ally Israel Possibly the lines that Sykes and Picot had drawn in the Middle Eastern sand are being redrawn brutally One would think that the US is running out of viable stable friends in the region at a time when the Chinese and the Russians remain interested in strengthening their positions in the region Russian military supplies to Syria are matched by American supplies to Jordan As with many global American interests they are quite often defined by financial considerations The US 13 billion military assistance to Egypt has a strong US connection as several companies like Lockheed Martin Boeing Raytheon and others benefit from this assistance Add to this the strategic importance of the Suez Canal to meet military and commercial requirements The Americans had supported Morsi and the Brotherhood last year hoping that they were the moderates who would help them stem the radical tide in the region The US could not achieve this nor could it support Morsi when he was deposed nor condemn the coup and nor even support Al Sisi In the end America could only watch helplessly paralysed by its own contradictions The traditional US policy of picking pliant dictators and then plying them with dollars and weapons has been showing diminishing marginal returns But some suggest an alternative possibility This draws a deep Machiavellian plot where the US pretends to withdraw support in Egypt while the Saudis step in as the saviours thereby portraying themselves as the new guarantors of peace and stability in the region Meanwhile there are reports that Hosni Mubarak may be set free soon and the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood has been arrested The banning of the Muslim Brotherhood would push them underground and into the arms of the Al Qaeda Is the Empire striking back or is this a case of overkill The threat of retaliation by the Al Qaeda and its affiliates is going to keep all intelligence agencies working overtime The writer is a former chief of Research and Analysis Wing RAW