Time for number crunching

The week gone by saw the markets make the best gains they have since the beginning of the current calendar year BSESENSEX gained 76471 points or 404 per cent to close at 1968323 points The NIFTY gained 226 points or 395 per cent to close at 594570 points The broader market saw the BSE100 BSE200 and BSE500 gaining 385 per cent 368 per cent and 356 per cent respectively A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during early trading in New York City USA The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high of 1425377 on Tuesday March 5 and closed even higher at 1439707 on Friday March 9 the highest mark it had hit since October 2007 PicGetty ImagesAFP The BSEREALTY was the biggest gainer up 740 per cent The other gainers included BSEBANKEX up 557 per cent BSECAP 533 per cent and BSEOIL up 437 per cent There was just one loser with the BSECONSUMER down 186 per cent In individual stocks Sesa Goa was up 865 per cent REC up 858 per cent Sterlite Industries up 837 per cent and ICICI Bank up 786 per cent On the losing side were Titan Industries down 570 per cent Hind Unilever down 325 per cent and NTPC down 043 per cent Data releases This week will see the release of IIP and inflation numbers These numbers become important as the RBI has its monetary policy meeting the following week on March 19 The Street expects further rate cuts in this meeting In case inflation does not come down significantly the RBI Governor who has gone on record stating that he is unhappy with the continued high inflation may just reduce repo and reverse repo and keep interest rates unchanged Global highs The week saw global markets gaining with the Dow Jones hitting new lifetime highs while some of the European indices were at multiyear highs Post clarification of the rules regarding TRC concerning Mauritius markets in India bounced off crucial support levels and from an oversold level FIIs bought shares worth Rs 3053 crore while domestic institutions sold shares worth Rs 1098 crore The Indian Rupee gained 062 paisa or 113 per cent to close at 5428 against the US dollar Stock sale During the week the government divested 125 per cent share in RCF to raise Rs 310 crore at a floor price of Rs 45 The issue was by and large bailed out by LIC and a number of financial institutions Bids made at the floor price have received 65 per cent of the bid amount indicating this bailout Shares from SAIL and NALCO would be divested in the coming weeks before the financial year comes to an end Issue raise Repco Home Finance is tapping the capital markets with its issue to raise Rs 259270 crore in a price band of Rs 165172 The company is a subsidiary of Repco Bank which is a Government of India undertaking it is owned by the Central government and the four Southern States As the name suggests the company is in the business of home finance and provides the same to all classes of customers primarily the small businessmen and nonsalaried class The company does not provide finance to builders The financials compare with those of LIC Housing Finance and Gruh Finance which are both listed companies Investors looking to invest in a housing finance company with a medium to longterm view may invest in the company There are also a number of tax free bond issues open which offer retail investors upto 732 per cent for periods ranging from 10 years 15 years and 20 years These will close at the end of the coming week These bond issues are from JNPT Ennore Port Dredging Corporation and HUDCO amongst others Weekly forecast After having seen a huge run up in the previous week the week ahead is likely to be one of consolidation The previous weekrsquos rally was more of a corrective rally and lacked the widespread participation considering the huge 4 per cent gain in the benchmark indices The markets need to at least consolidate on these gains if nothing else Global cues and the economic data due next week would dictate future movement of the market Key levels for the SENSEX are 19350 and 19950 while similar levels for the NIFTY are 5825 and 6025 respectively The BSESENSEX has support at 19538 points then at 19310 points then at 19060 points and finally at 18885 points It has resistance at 19766 points then at 19902 points then at 20165 points and finally at 20205 points The NSENIFTY has support at 5901 points then at 5831 points then at 5755 points and finally at 5671 points It has resistance at 5971 points then at 6041 points then at 6083 points and finally at 6111 points Trade cautiously with the financial year ending in a mere three weeks Arun Kejriwal is founder of the Mumbaibased advisory firm Kejriwal Research amp Investment Services Pvt Ltd Readers are invited to read more about these and other issues on his website httpak57in Disclaimer No financial information whatsoever published anywhere in this newspaper should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever All matter published here is for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading or making investment decisions Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions based on information published here Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at his or her risk