Split like never before, loyalties and voters will decide the fate of the political parties in Maharashtra, of which there are at least six, if the Shiv Sena and NCP splinters are taken into account. There will be more in the fray, such as MNS, Samajwadi Party, BSP, BRS, AIMIM and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (if it stays away from any alliance) that have been impacting the gains of major parties. The poll field is expected to be a khichdi the state hasn’t seen so far, notwithstanding the two rivals’ alliances, the six parties are expected to be formed, and extend the pact to smaller parties that are willing to consolidate the bonds. 

How it works

The Lok Sabha will be a little less complex because of the constituency size, but the Vidhan Sabha fray of much smaller segments could stretch the imagination to no end, because the social factors the respective parties depend on to score more in terms of votes, will get smaller or bigger in influence in that particular segment. The social factors here mean the specific castes, caste groups (as defined by social reservations) and minorities. There have been pockets where a particular party or a couple of parties have been getting more support than their nearest rivals due to the caste support. The selection of candidates is largely done on the basis of the dominant caste and caste groups. There have been exceptions, but not many. In many cases, the candidates from the same caste have been contesting with the purpose of splitting votes. One who gets the surplus from the other caste emerged as the winner. In some cases, the dominant castes have favoured those who they thought were the best among the equals. In some constituencies, smaller caste groups have been a decisive factor. VBA had made an exception to this established formula in the last elections. It did damage in some places, but couldn’t snatch the win from the clutches of the major parties that fought independently or in alliance.