Stomach for an upset

It only took the preliminary stages of the menrsquos World Cup to highlight one advantage the T20 format has over Test cricket the greater likelihood of an upset Bangladesh lost to Scotland and Namibiarsquos defeat of Ireland means they miss the Super 12 stage itrsquos dangerous mingling with the minnowsIn Test cricket it may look like a major upset is about to occur but it rarely eventuates Ireland appeared on the verge of the upset of the century when they dismantled the England batting lineup for 85 at Lordrsquos in 2019 Despite holding a first innings lead of 122 the Irish batting folded like a paper aeroplane in the second innings to be all out for a paltry 38Regular upsetsWersquove just had another reminder that major upsets occur regularly in T20 World Cup tournaments In 2009 at Lordrsquos England suffered a calamitous defeat at the hands of the Netherlands which led to the home side missing the semifinalsThere have been other upsetsmdashnot of the same magnitude as Englandrsquos lossmdashbut still embarrassing for the major nation Then there are the exciting near misses where the minnows appear to be on track to upsetting a major nation but eventually normality prevailsOne such occasion also in 2009 was an enthralling battle between Sri Lanka and Ireland at Lordrsquos The fighting Irish looked to be in position to upset Sri Lanka when they held their opponents to 144 An upset came even more into focus when Ireland compiled a productive opening partnership of 59 after just nine oversAt this stage I was sitting in the Lordrsquos press box among a group of animated Irish journalists ldquoShould be a big party tonightrdquo I said ldquoif Ireland winrdquo Without even turning his head one journalist replied with typical Irish humourldquoRegardlessrdquoOf the minor countries who have performed reasonably regularly in T20 World Cups the Netherlands and Scotland have won a third of their matches In general this is as a result of winning games they should have against other minor nationsCreditable Afghan IrelandThe two latest nations to acquire Test statusmdashAfghanistan and Irelandmdashhave performed creditably respectively winning 35 and 25 per cent of their T20 World Cup matches That compares favourably with an oftenthreateningbutrarelyproducing Bangladesh who languish at just 22 per centThe inclusion of minor cricket nations there were five in the current tournament can lead to some club standard cricket Nevertheless itrsquos a worthwhile exercise to encourage these countries through the T20 format Itrsquos a bit like the early rounds of English footballrsquos FA Cup where occasionally the parttimers upset the highly paid professionals and a township celebrates wildlyHowever when the dust settles and the ambition has been doused itrsquoll be four major nations who survive the cut and thrust to reach the semifinals of this yearrsquos tournament In a format where a quickfire 20 which includes a couple of biffed sixes or a brief but accurate two over spell can change the course of a match predicting semifinalists is fraught with danger Adding to the uncertainty this tournament is being held in a part of the world where many of the major nations are unfamiliar with the conditionsLogic would say that the venue favours the highly unpredictable Pakistan who for most of the previous decade used the UAE as itrsquos lsquohomersquo turf Also players who participated in the second half of the rearranged IPL will benefit from the tournamentrsquos shift to the UAE and that makes India a big beneficiaryIn Group 2 the most likely semifinalists are India and Pakistan with the biggest danger being New Zealand Group 1 where Australia England South Africa and West Indies all reside is much more difficult to predict Utilising the pinthetailonthedonkey method I favour England and West Indies to qualify from this group but I do so with little conviction And thatrsquos the beauty of the T20 World Cup itrsquos a lottery