There is more to it than just fighting COVID-19

As the country simultaneously fights COVID19 and a depleting economy measures taken on both fronts are getting bouquets and brickbats Coronavirus red zones hotspots have been increasing with every passing day and there are varied projections of growth in their numbers by May end The national lockdown has now become a reason for people to get upset Relaxations are not being implemented wherever they are supposed to roll the wheels of the economyRed tape lack of coordination between agencies and departments and the fear of relaxations boomeranging arent allowing things to open The major contributor to the fear of backfiring is the unruly social behaviour of the anxious populationNo doubt in red zones like Mumbai Pune and other containment zones in the country priority should be given to save lives over encouraging exasperated economic activitiesRed zone worriesThe projections from Mumbai are fearsome even if we discard the Centres figure of 65 lakh positive cases and instead consider the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporations BMC assessment of 70000 by May 15 Civic officials countered the Centre throwing in all their brilliance in data analytics to sooth the distressed city But its time the BMC also responded to allegations that they reacted very late to making provisions of Central quarantine for those living in densely populated areas such as slums and others at home and reporting fast to identify and quarantine infective clusters Complaints keep coming in from the poor that they are not getting doortodoor supply of food and essential items In a way the Centre team deserves a thank you note from the city because its projection however contentious forced the city masters to think of getting ready for a rapid increase in intensive care units and hospital beds for the peakinfection period which seems to have begun with the highest ever jump seen in the past three days According to ICMRs calculation the medical teams will need 150 ventilators 300 ICU beds and 12006000 regular beds where the daily infection in an area is 500 Lets hope things fall in place and the BMCs projections dont overshoot much despite changed testing protocols and the lockdownLockdown bluesIt was being said that the lockdown will not eradicate the virus but reduce the cases by 2540 So if it is lifted numbers of the affected will increase An effective way as many experts have suggested to control the pandemic is creating a large number of quarantine places and doortodoor checkups It is good that Mumbai seems to have taken up some such measures as the peak time nears Yet the city might need more testing We dont know whether it will happen because the BMC has changed its testing protocolNow lets see how lockdown will impact the economy The PRS Legislative Research study says that the union government has estimated 73 of the Centres revenue or about R16 lakh crore is expected to come through taxes The lockdown will have an impact since most activities are suspended and many of those which are permitted such as agriculture government services and essential services have zero or lowerthanaverage taxes Nontax revenue may also be affected A major chunk of capital receipts is budgeted from disinvestment of public sector enterprises R21 lakh crore The disinvestment process and consequently the disinvestment receipts could get affected if the equity markets remain volatileThe state governments also face grim reality As per their 202021 budget on an average nearly 70 of the states revenue is estimated to come from taxes 45 from their own taxes and 25 from their share of centres taxes Lower collections in the Centres taxes can impact the states share The GST compensation that comes from collections of a cess levied on certain goods may be affected With the sale of many goods likely to be affected this year the cess collections may see a shortfall The lockdown has severely impacted the consumption and sale of alcohol and petroleum products This will affect the states sales tax VAT and state exciseCorrect exit planWhat about the effectiveness of the exit from lockdown in specified zones and sectors The Confederation of Indian Industry CII conducted a national survey last week and isnt very happy about itThe findings on difficulties faced are glaring and need prompt attention The CII survey indicates that permits for enterprises passes for workers and supply chain movement are the key hurdles for industries in exit from lockdown CII has suggested that in noncontainment zones businesses should be allowed to function without requirement of permits and only through intimation to local authorities Moreover workers can be permitted to commute on the basis of a letter issued by the employer organisation and travel by their own vehicles said Chandrajit Banerjee Director General CII in a statementThe survey says a majority of respondents stated that guidelines issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs on April 15 and 16 on operational zones in rural and urban areas are clearly communicated by state governments At least 57 agreed that they had clarity while 28 noted that partial information was available Only 15 stated that incomplete or no communication was made availableAccording to the survey majority of firms are operating at less than 25 of full capacity with just 10 having plant utilisation of over 50 Only 1 of enterprises cited lack of capacity to implement health and safety protocols as impacting their restart and 16 said that their businesses are in the red zone while 20 were located in municipal areas and could not operate Clearly the Centre and states have more at hand than only fighting the pandemicDharmendra Jore is political editor midday He tweets dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomCatch up on all the latest Mumbai news crime news current affairs and a complete guide from food to things to do and events across Mumbai Also download the new midday Android and iOS apps to get latest updates MidDay is now on Telegram Click here to join our channel middayinfomedialtd and stay updated with the latest news