Think you could get COVID-19?

Lets get a few things straight first mdash Mr Xi Jinping president of China is not hiding in a dungeon because hes afraid of catching COVID19 The shrill YouTube video making the rounds is by an alarmist called Christopher Greene wellknown vendor of bullshit who last predicted that the planet would be plunged into a world war starting 2012Another thing mdash keeping your throat wet does nothing to prevent COVID19 infection Thats another debunked but widely shared factoid WHO put out a notice warning people not to believe itAnd eating or avoiding spicy food has zero to do with COVID19 which is a respiratory infection Oh did I mention that masks dont help prevent infection They help prevent spread of infection if you have COVID19 Getting the messageSo lets get straight to the question thudding in your heart how afraid should you be of COVID19 Im writing this because when something unknown comes your way the questions you ask are as important as the answers you get Most people are getting scary answers and they havent even asked the right questions yetIf I may read your mind for a moment your main questions are mdash Am I going to get Coronavirus Is someone I love going to get it Is COVID19 going to kill us all Let me break these down into swallowsized answersWhat is your risk of exposure mdash and infectionFirst exposure is not the same as infection Exposure means you just happened to be within infection range of someone with Coronavirus What are your chances of exposure Very very low unless you are surrounded by people who just got back from hot spots mdash China Italy and South Korea right now That might change soon so stay tunedThere are as I write this March 2 89780 cases of COVID19 infection on a planet of 8 billion humans or about one case per 100000 Oh and did I mention that 45534 of them recovered completely Just to relax those tense shoulder muscles heres another factoid traffic accidents kill 174 Indians in every 100000 Its very remotely likely that you will get exposed to COVID19Lets say you get exposed somehow maybe in a train or an international workshop What are the chances youll be infected from this exposureLets check out what happened in Wuhan Did everyone in Wuhan get infected Lets assume that all 11 million people in Wuhan got exposed not true However we know that as of today only 80026 people in Wuhan have been detected with the infection Thats an infection rate of 7 per 1000 people exposedThe story thus far mdash your chances of getting exposed are very very low and on top of that only seven in 1000 exposed people get infected Feeling any better yetLets say you somehow did get infected with COVID19 runny nose flulike feeling fever maybe some trouble breathing What are the chances youll call it a dayThis is the fatality rate In Wuhan 3069 have died out of 89780 A fatality rate of about 34 per cent or about 7 people in every 200 infectedLets go to worse caseSince many infected people might have experienced symptoms so mild that they did not bother reporting them its possible Wuhans infection rate is higher than estimated Lets see what happens to your personal risk of dying from COVID19 if the virus was 10 times more infectious Lets make it a real threatYoure in a city of 10 million and 4 million get exposed Of them lets say that instead of 007 per cent 10 per cent or 400000 get infected Since COVID19 has a fatality rate of about 35 per cent as far as we know now about 14000 will dieWhat are your chances of getting infected and dying Its simple math mdash infection rate multiplied by fatality rate In this case it would 10 per cent infection rate x 35 per cent fatality rate 035 or 35 per centThat means you have a 965 per cent chance of dodging COVID19 even if the virus was 10 times more infectiousAre you breathing yetIts very difficult to nail down infection and mortality rates in a fastevolving epidemic like COVID19 so expect numbers and predictions to change The most useful advice Ive read about COVID19 so far is1 Stay calm2 Dont bother with face masks unless youre going into public spaces like an airport3 Carry a hand sanitizer Wash your hands as many times as you can especially after touching public surfaces in trains buses or taxisDeep gratitude to Dr David Latz whose brilliant and calmly reasoned article in Medium informs much of what Ive written here You can read his original here at httpstinyurlcomvepcfn6Here viewed from there C Y Gopinath in Bangkok throws unique light and shadows on Mumbai the city that raised him You can reach him at cygopigmailcom Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individuals and dont represent those of the paperCatch up on all the latest Crime National International and Hatke news here Also download the new midday Android and iOS apps to get latest updates