US midterm elections: Trump faces Republican losses as polls favour Democrats

A week before midterm elections polls project grim prospects for President Donald Trump who is weighed down by the economic fallout of his tariff war and the Iran conflict on US voters The consensus among major poll analysts is that his Republican Party will lose control of the House of Representatives while the Senate outcome is hovering in the realm of a tossupTrumps next two years in office will depend on which party controls either chamber of Congress or both If Democrats control either they can try to obstruct his policies and actions or Trump can vehemently defy them a standoff that could bring judicial interventionAt the very least the US could see a replay of his first term when the Democratcontrolled House impeached him and he warned his supporters could happen againSigns of his desperation are his offer of 5000 to every American adult if the Republicans win the midterms and not only lifting sanctions placed on Russia for its Ukraine invasion after having imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India at one time but also entering into a deal with Russias President Vladimir Putin to buy dieselTrump has declared the midterms a referendum on the first 20 months of his second administration telling citizens to vote as if he was on the ballot even though many Republicans are distancing themselves from him because of his low ratingsRepublican New Hampshire Senate candidate John Sununu for example said in an ad ldquoWhen the presidentrsquos policies are bad for New Hampshire Irsquoll oppose them just like I opposed the war in Iran and the trade war with CanadaTrump seems to have admitted the popularity of his party and him is dimming even in their electoral fortresses by concentrating his campaign in the reliably red states that he carried in the presidential election in order to shore up support for Republican candidates rather than take the battle to blue states to topple DemocratsEvery single place I go people that are down are now winning he asserted recently about his ldquoTrumpapaloozasrdquo the rallies he is holding from Alaska in the north to Texas in the SouthAnd his Justice Department has taken the unusual step of filing a case to stop the Senate election in Alaska officially declared if the Republican candidate Dan S Sullivan loses because the Trump administration says there is another candidate with a similar name Daniel J Sullivan on the ballot and it confuses votersThe voting is already in progress and as of Monday nearly 30 million citizens had voted either through postal ballots or at inperson early voting stations There are 217 million registered voters and the turnout in midterm election is usually low recording 462 per cent in 2022 and 50 per cent in 2018Democrats flipping the House majority would be in line with the historical trend of the presidents party losing the midterms but the size of the majority would matter RealClear Politics RCP which aggregates polls reported that only 382 per cent of likely voters approve of Trumps job performance while 602 per cent disapprove of Trump jobAnd tellingly 57 per cent say Trump policies are making them financially worse off That would echo worldwide sentiments about the impacts of the Iran conflict that Trump launched alongside Israel and the tariff war but hit closer to home for TrumpThe inflation rate was 37 per cent last month up from 34 per cent in August but it bites consumers much harder than would be expected due to the soaring prices of petroleum especially diesel and its multiplier effect on food and other items of daily use as well as the impact of tariffs on many items of everyday useThis stings because during the 2024 election campaign he had boasted he would bring down the price of petrol to 2 a gallon 53 cents per litre but now the average price is 428 a gallon 113 per litre and diesel is 628 a gallon 166 per litreIn this scenario RCP gave Democrats a majority with 227 seats in the 435member House even with 25 seats it put in the tossup category where neither party has a clear lead and can go either way Cook Political Report an authoritative source for nonpartisan analysis projects 220 seats for Democrats with 17 tossupsIts editor for House elections Erin Covey was forthright about the outcome Republicansrsquo path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated CBS News said Democrats could get 229 seats for Democrats and Republicans 206 with the caveat because of previous polls being off the mark Republicans do still have a very narrow path to hold the majority tooThats because according to CBS News There isnt a growing Democratic wave and the still undecided or uncertain voters tend to profile as more Republican The Senate scenario doesnt have a clear winner Only 35 seats are up for election this year under the system in which about a third of the 100 seats come up for election every two years because senators have sixyear termsCBS News taking into account the seats not up for election tallies 46 for Democrats and 44 for Republicans with 10 categorised as tossups but going by the trends in tossup states it sees Democrats getting 52 seats to Republicans 48 Cook Political Report projects 15 of them for Republicans with 13 for Democrats and seven stuck in the tossup categoryTrump who is an indefatigable campaigner and can outrun far younger politicians has focused his campaign on the states where he had clear victories in the 2024 presidential elections but is now concerned with erosion of supportOn Tuesday he is scheduled to hold two rallies Texas which he won by 14 per cent but where his handpicked candidate Ken Paxton is trailing Democrat James Talarico by 15 per cent an erosion of about 12 per centTrump held a rally on Monday in Mississippi that he had carried by 24 per cent Sunday in Michigan where he had a nearly 15 per cent lead on Friday in Florida that gave him a nearly 13 per cent lead and Thursday in Iowa where he also had led by 13 per centThis story has been sourced from a third party 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