Maharashtra political crisis: Shiv Sena strongman rebels; BJP senses chance for 'Operation Lotus'

Itrsquos disadvantage Shiv Sena ever since the party forged an alliance with the NCP and Congress This is not just a line the BJP has stuck to but Uddhav Thackerayrsquos party leaders too have been complaining about it While Thackeray remained inaccessible due to the pandemic and his surgery he did try to address complaints of discrimination by NCP ministers who are in charge of important departments like finance it was perhaps not enough to stem the resentment Also rebel Eknath Shinde has been raising Senarsquos compromise on its core Hindutva ideologyWhile the NCP controls departments that are key to reaching out to the people Senarsquos secondrun leadership and MLAs will be facing off in polls with the BJP which says the party has compromised on its core Hidutva ideologyLeaders and MLAs from Sena and its associates have openly expressed their displeasure over the inaccessibility of the CM who is also their party leader The pandemic and illness of Thackeray restrained him from interacting with his legislators or visiting their constituenciesComplaints of discrimination by NCP ministers who are in charge of important departments like finance have been pouring in Ashish Jaiswal had complained against bias in fund allotment and intrusion by other ruling parties in their constituencies The CM had scrapped the orders or tenders that nonSena ministers had approved after the complaint Shinde himself made the CM stall IPS officersrsquo transfers and revise it as per his wishPandemic and his health kept Uddhav Thackeray from his own party men File picLately Thackeray started working on the grievances and tried to take matters into his hand He gave MLAs a hearing and promised to rectify discrimination Acting on complaints he issued an order that transfers cannot be done after a certain deadlineBut he couldnrsquot stop the expression of unrest especially in Rajya Sabha in which the independents gave the Sena a short shrift and later the MLC polls which gave the disgruntled MLAs an opportunity to vent out their frustration without letting others know because of a secret ballot However crossvoting was established when the Sena polled less than its official numbers and associates The Sena lost one seat in Rajya Sabha while somehow managed to win two MLC seats because of crossvoting by its MLAs and associatesLike other parties the Senarsquos secondrung also has its loyalties split between biggies in the party for instance Eknath Shinde and others like Aaditya Thackeray Anil Parab Sanjay Raut Veterans Divakar Raote and Subhash Desai were asked not to contest the MLC polls and instead work for the partyThe biggies have also accused the top leadership of being preferential and deliberately promoting certain people who were nowhere while others built the party by fighting in the streets Among young leaders Varun Sardesai holds a considerable sway becasue of being Aadityarsquos maternal cousin Anil Parab has been given a very special place in the party affairs The CMrsquos private secretary Milind Narvekar who is also the partyrsquos secretary wields authority Many prominent leaders Ramdas Kadam and Raote who were seen in action till 2019 have gone missing after Thackeray became the CMThe rookies rule the roost as we rot into rust say the second rung leaders and MLAs who are equally concerned about their future in case the party departs from Hindutva or dilutes it while taking on the aggressive BJPWhat could be or not begtgt Eknath Shinde remains steady He doesnrsquot go back to the Shiv Sena with his supporters Instability prevails and political uncertainty makes more Sena MLAs join him If he manages to have two thirds of the Senarsquos strength of 55 on his side then he forms his own group and saves all from disqualification The group either merges with the BJP or supports the single largest party to form the government gtgt Shinde and his supporters resign Some MLAs from other parties such as the Congress which is equally infested by dissidence also quit The MVA government faces a noconfidence motion or resigns before facing the floor test The resigned MLAs contest by elections They are rehabilitated by the BJP in the government and other places The defeated ones are made MLCs through the governorrsquos quotagtgt Shinde and other rebels do not resign The Sena does not expel MLAs but sacks the ministers among them and keeps their MLA status intact In this situation the MLAs cannot go against the partyrsquos official whip or directives to be followed in the legislature or else they get disqualifiedgtgt Considering Shindersquos demand the Sena breaks alliance with the Congress and NCP Shinde comes back with his men The BJP and Sena are back together in the saddlegtgt The Sena continues to work with Congress and NCP lands in a minority As utter chaos prevails the governor recommends Presidentrsquos Rule The interim period is used to forge yet another alliance If not then the state goes to midterm pollsHow will this impact BMC pollsIf Shindersquos mutiny results in the BJPrsquos comeback in the state government it will impact the BMC polls most because conventionally the ruling party enjoys the edge in local elections The BJP emerged as a formidable opposition in BMC falling two members short of the Sena in 2017 But it did not form a government It played friends with the Sena then hit it hard Shindersquos exit will also impact his fiefdom Thane where civic polls will be held Stopping Shinde and BJP even short of winning will be revenge for the Sena